Polymarket World Cup betting market sees over 66% of addresses at a loss, with a small number of people raking in $2.2 million

Polymarket World Cup champion prediction market data revealed: among 194k addresses, 66.7% are in losses, and 54 big winners combined profit $2.2 million.
(Background: Yale study: Polymarket’s 3% pros capture 30% of profits, while 67% of retail traders bear all losses)
(Additional context: Can prediction markets really make money? More than 70% of Polymarket users are losing)

Table of contents

Toggle

• Most people lose small amounts, a few addresses lose big
• Large profits are concentrated among 54 traders
• The “winner-takes-all” logic of prediction markets
• Background: prediction markets surged during the World Cup

Table of contents

Toggle

• Most people lose small amounts, a few addresses lose big
• Large profits are concentrated among 54 traders
• The “winner-takes-all” logic of prediction markets
• Background: prediction markets surged during the World Cup

Based on on-chain data analysis platform @defioasis’s information published on X, in Polymarket’s market for predicting the 2026 FIFA World Cup champion for the United States, Canada, and Mexico, among more than 194k independent trading addresses, nearly 130k had incorrect predictions that resulted in realized losses, with the loss ratio reaching 66.7%.

Most people lose small amounts, a few addresses lose big

Among 194k trading addresses, the loss distribution shows a typical pattern of “many small losses, few big losses”:

• 114k addresses had losses of $100 or less, with average losses of under $10
• 43 addresses had losses exceeding $100k, with total losses of over $15 million

Large profits are concentrated among 54 traders

The profit side also shows a long-tail distribution. Most profitable addresses earn less than $100, with an average of only $5. True large gains come from a small number of traders:

• 54 addresses successfully profited over $100k
• These 54 addresses combined earned over $22 million

The World Cup is over—congratulations to Spain again. I wonder which of you small partners successfully placed the winning bet

In the statistics of Polymarket predicting the World Cup champion market across more than 194k independent trading addresses

In terms of losses:
– Nearly 130k addresses predicted wrong and realized losses; the loss ratio is about 66.7%
– Most participants’ losses aren’t that large; 114k addresses had losses within $100, with average losses under $10… pic.twitter.com/z3kKImxnlZ

— defioasis.eth (@defioasis) July 20, 2026

The “winner-takes-all” logic of prediction markets

This dataset echoes a basic feature of prediction markets: information advantages and capital size determine the final distribution. In the World Cup champion market, early bettors accumulate large “France wins” or “Spain wins” weight shares at lower prices. Once the match result is confirmed, the return on these early positions is far higher than that of participants who entered later. The 43 losing addresses with losses over $100k were very likely hedge funds or professional gamblers that added positions in the later stages of the matches.

Background: prediction markets exploded in volume during the World Cup

According to estimates from H2 Gambling Capital, during the World Cup, prediction markets’ share of U.S. sports betting jumped from 9% at the beginning of the year to 27%, showing these platforms are rapidly taking market share from traditional gambling companies. As the leading on-chain prediction market, Polymarket’s World Cup champion market has become the best testing ground for figuring out “who is smart money and who is retail.”