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Bitcoin options implied volatility has fallen to rock bottom; this year, it has signaled “significant volatility” in the price of BTC 3 times.

2026-07-20 09:22:25

Abstract generation in progress

Mars Finance news: On July 20, crypto analyst Murphy said that Bitcoin options implied volatility (IV) is currently extremely low. The 1-week IV is 33% and the 1-month IV is 34%, both below the 40% historical range, suggesting that the market may see “significant volatility.” Murphy noted that in the past year, similar situations have occurred twice. After the early-January IV fell below 40% for 15 days, BTC dropped from $97k to $62k; after the late-April IV fell below 40% for 14 days, BTC dropped from $82k to $60k; and after June 15, BTC fell from $66k to $58k. Murphy said that low IV is driven by consistent market consensus, the accumulation of volatility arbitrage capital, and the market makers’ short-gamma mechanism, which together amplify the impact of events beyond expectations. He reminded derivatives traders to prepare accordingly.

BTC3.29%

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