7.20 evening outlook

This round of short-term counter-sells and rebound throughout was all about reduced volume and passive repairs, with no off-exchange incremental new bids actively entering to build up positions. It only relied on the earlier “stop-win” trend from the market, bringing a modest rise. The “big head” itself didn’t have enough confidence to begin with. On top of that, recently, Federal Reserve officials collectively released hawkish remarks, and rate-cut expectations continued to cool down. The US dollar and US Treasury yields both rebounded in sync. In addition, the Middle East geopolitical conflict has pushed up oil prices, and global inflation concerns have resurfaced, directly suppressing the performance of crypto risk assets. Spot BTC/ETH funds also showed a small net outflow, and risk-avoidance sentiment clearly warmed up.

Also, the US CLARITY crypto bill is still stuck at the Senate voting stage. The parties can’t reconcile on the ethical clauses, and regulatory uncertainty has been hanging over the market. Large funds don’t dare to enter with big size to build positions, so the order book naturally has a hard time sustaining a one-way upward trend. The “chasing-the-fear” rebound followed by a pullback during the day is just a manifestation of funds taking precautions and cashing out early.

On the technical side, on the four-hour timeframe, the rebound candles pierced the short-term moving averages and then quickly fell back. The candles once again broke the moving average support, and the short-term trend has shifted from range-with-bias-up to weak consolidation and correction. On the one-hour indicators, they entered the oversold zone, so there is briefly a small need for a rebound repair, but any rebound without volume expansion support is just a trap designed to lure longs—never blindly bottom-pick and catch the falling bids.

The day’s low at 63,760 saw a small bid that provided some follow-through and temporarily stopped the downward push. However, the strength of bids below is weak, and defense stability is very poor.

BTC rebound near 64,800–65,300, support/positioning at that range; target toward 63,400–62,900.
ETH rebound near 1,890–1,930, support/positioning at that range; target toward 1,830–1,790.
$BTC $ETH #美军结束对伊朗新一轮打击