The U.S.-Iran conflict spirals into escalation, and diplomatic remarks can’t conceal a military stalemate; market risk-averse sentiment may rise again.

Although Iran’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs mentions “negotiations based on national interests,” its wording treats diplomacy and war side by side as “tools,” without releasing any signal of substantive concessions. Meanwhile, the U.S. military has carried out airstrikes against targets inside Iran for the ninth consecutive night. Trump personally confirmed “control of the Strait of Hormuz” and said Iran’s military capability “is left with almost nothing,” showing that the U.S. side is still keeping extreme military pressure as its main line.

With Israel coordinating the addition of more refueling aircraft, it suggests that the intensity and duration of the conflict may exceed market expectations. Even though Iran has not yet taken extreme countermeasures such as blocking the strait, the probability that the war risk evolves from a “short-term conflict” into a “prolonged grind” is rising, which may push oil prices to rebound, lift gold higher, and weigh on global stock markets. The current news flow is overall bearish$BTC #夏日创作营 #星舰本周四重新挑战发射