#夏日创作营

After Bitcoin breaks above $65k, can it still be bought? -- A deep dive into the long/short positioning and liquidation data of top exchange whales in 2026

After last Friday’s drop, over the weekend and today, BTC’s “Big Cake” has rebounded again. The price broke above $64,595 (during the intraday session it briefly tested the $65,000 psychological round-number level). Amid a frenzy of long-side celebration, many cross-border investors have raised questions: after Bitcoin breaks above $65k, can it still be bought? At this point, is entering the market a high-level “bag-holding” trade, or is it the “golden pit” before the main upswing? Today, Xiaocaishen will use in-depth on-screen market data—such as open contracts across the entire network, the long/short positions ratio, and liquidation clearing maps—to analyze where things may go next.

I. Futures market — See the long/short “cards” near $65k from underlying derivatives data

To judge whether you can still buy at a high level, you must never rely on feelings or follow the crowd. By cross-checking the current derivatives market’s various heatmap indicators, the true intentions of the main funds are already evident:

1.24-hour trading volume and open interest surge

Capital settlement scale: Currently, total Bitcoin derivatives open interest across the network is as high as $48.56 billion. Over the past 24 hours, derivatives contract trading volume reached $63.98 billion, while spot trading volume was $461 million. Such huge volume together with high open interest indicates that the current move is not an illusion in thin air, but a wide consolidation range constructed by major funds using real money.

Long/short “coin-flip” collisions in rapid succession: When price probed near $65k, turnover on the board accelerated extremely quickly—suggesting that around the $65k strong resistance area, the probing intentions of institutional longs and the selling pressure from short-term profit-takers are undergoing high-intensity rotation.

2.Long/short positions ratio: an asymmetric divergence between retail and institutions

Bn top whale long/short ratio (Positions): currently as high as 1.4631, and top traders (Accounts) also keep the long/short ratio at 1.343.

O*K top whale long/short ratio: maintained in a healthy long zone at 1.25.

Bn account count long/short ratio: only 1.1887.

Mapping the market logic: This divergence set is highly referenceable. When price rebounds to the $64.5k–$65k range, ordinary accounts (mostly retail) are very hesitant about positioning (close to 1:1), while large institutions and top whales generally keep long/short ratios at elevated levels between 1.35 and 1.46. This kind of divergence—whales bullish while retail panics—often reflects the main players’ “sticker”: after cleaning up over-crowded, over-leveraged floating longs, they continue to shake out and accumulate momentum via consolidation.

3.Liquidation heatmap: the long-side main force completes deep clearing

Liquidations cleared in the past 24 hours: In just the last 24 hours alone, the liquidation clearing amount across the network reached as much as $116.9 million. Of this, liquidations of long positions were only $7.69 million (long leverage was almost fully cleared in advance), while liquidations of short positions were as high as $109.2 million.

The “washout” logic: This indicates that this leg of the rally is a typical short-chain squeeze. The long-side main force exploits the weakness of previously overcrowded short positions and launches an instant upward raid, turning $109.09 million in short liquidations into fuel for the next leg higher.

II. Potential assessment: After Bitcoin breaks above $65k, can it still be bought?

To discuss whether to hold long-term or take short-term risk avoidance, you need to clearly understand Bitcoin’s technical “carry-through” strength across different cycles:

1.Repair of value drawdowns in the 180-day cycle

Looking at the cycle span: although the last 24 hours show +3.21%, over the 180-day large cycle Bitcoin is still in a deep drawdown and a central-reconstruction range of -32.40%. In this cycle, $65k looks more like a transfer station for price action and a valuation reset point. As long as the whales’ long/short ratio stays above 1.3 and open interest (OI) does not plunge in a cliff-like manner, the long-term holding logic for spot in batches and dollar-cost averaging remains solid.

2.A new institutional “anchor point” for allocation

In today’s 2026 macro environment, where volatility is intensifying, Bitcoin is no longer just a niche speculative asset—it has become a hard-core liquidity defense tool within global asset allocation. Therefore, when building positions around $65k, it should be positioned as defensive asset allocation, not something to bet on for a short-term surge that doubles or more.

III. Investment posture during high-level consolidation

1.Build spot in batches; resolutely avoid high leverage above 3x

It’s not hard to see from the one-way liquidations of more than $100 million in the last 24 hours that the market makers’ washout tactics are extremely ruthless. If you want to hold in batches long-term, the best strategy is to use spot DCA or accumulate in batches within the support zone of $62k to $64k. Until price has firmly established itself above $66k, any high-multiple futures contract is extremely likely to get “maliciously stabbed and killed” halfway through.

2.Cross-audit the long/short positions ratio and the liquidation heatmap

At frequently volatile trading points, always log in to a professional derivatives platform to monitor changes in total open interest across the network. If top whales at major firms keep the long/short positions ratio at a reasonable elevated level, it indicates that the underlying long-term position-building logic has not changed. But if price rebounds while the whales’ long/short positions ratio rapidly drops toward 1.0, it often signals that the main players are raising the price to distribute; at that time, you should stay highly restrained.

3.Down 32% over 180 days—does this rebound breaking above $65k prove it’s a real breakout, or a long-side bull-trap induced by bullishness?

Market audit shows that this rebound came with the complete clearance of $109.2 million in short positions, indicating that prior short-side resistance has been effectively dismantled. However, to determine whether it is an absolute real breakout, you still need to see how open interest (Open Interest) and the 52-week broad market index work together. If price can continue to hold above $64,500 for more than 3 days, and the whales’ long/short positions ratio (e.g., Bn) does not fall in a cliff-like manner, then this zone will become the “golden base” for the next wave of upward movement. Conversely, if price quickly breaks below $62k within a short time, you should be alert that this is washout behavior—high-level price manipulation to lure longs.

IV. Conclusion

Overall, the market data audit shows that the deep answer to “After Bitcoin breaks above $65k, can it still be bought?” is not about blindly chasing the short-term trend. Instead, the question should be: after a pullback of nearly 50%, does Bitcoin have investment value—and could the massive open-short liquidation data be hiding the possibility that the main players are quietly flipping sides to go long? By leveraging the asymmetrical divergence in the whales’ long/short positions ratio, Xiaocaishen believes we can implement reasonable defensive allocations on the spot side, while derivatives traders should control position sizing and leverage to avoid getting “flipped” before dawn due to a single fake drop.