Yuejie’s take: This week sets the direction—BTC first probing 60k has a higher probability

Three major events are set to land all at once this week on Wednesday, and the crypto market is about to step out of a one-way range. Yuejie gives a direct subjective call: a push to 70k in the short term is unlikely; the probability that the events land with a bearish bias is higher. BTC is very likely to first pull back to the 60k psychological integer level.

First variable: The CLARITY Act (July 23)
It looks like a long-awaited positive, but in reality it’s the biggest uncertainty mine. The current probability is only 32%; Republican votes are not enough to clear the hurdle. If it doesn’t pass before the August recess, it will be pushed to next year. The regulatory premium that was previously bid up will all be unwound, directly dragging the market down to 60k—I personally lean toward this outcome.

Second variable: The Fed’s blackout period
In the first blackout period after Waller took office, there was an unusually long stretch of silence. Regional Fed officials have already cycled through hawkish commentary. By year-end, the probability of further rate hikes has broken above 50%. The market hasn’t fully priced in hawkish expectations yet, and when the signals land, it can trigger a catch-up sell-off.

Third variable: The ECB rate decision (July 23)
Not only the Fed—after the oil-price rebound, expectations for an ECB rate hike in September keep heating up. A synchronized tightening of global liquidity, coupled with this, means the downside will be stronger than expected.

A real pullback to 60k is actually an opportunity. It has both sentiment and technicals as dual support. After the bad news is fully digested, any rebound should be more solid. Even if the bill unexpectedly passes and BTC surges to 70k, that would be a “rally on good news” followed by a high-and-fade move—it won’t last long.

Yuejie’s advice: Don’t bet on one-way moves. Keep your powder dry and enter only after the developments land—it’s far safer than guessing. $BTC $ETH #GUSD年化升至3.8%