#美军结束对伊朗新一轮打击 U.S. forces end the ninth night of strikes on Iran; the market relaxes, but crude still stays tight

At 10:00 p.m. Eastern on July 19, the U.S. Central Command announced the completion of nine consecutive nights of strikes on Iran. This round of airstrikes lasted about 3 hours, with targets including Iran’s military command centers, air defense and coastal surveillance facilities, and missile and drone positions. The intent is to further weaken Iran’s ability to disrupt merchant shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. The same day, Trump said he was “avenging the three fallen American service members,” adding that Iran’s military strength “is all but gone.”

The geopolitical risk premium eased in the short term. BTC followed by giving back a small amount as risk-off funds trimmed exposure. XLE (energy ETF) still received buy-side support despite the hard constraint that Hormuz Strait transit volume is “zero.” On Iran’s side, it was stated that as long as the U.S. continues to provoke, the strait will remain closed. Defense stocks, led by LMT, are also benefiting from expectations that the U.S. is still stationed in Iraq/have troops in Jordan, and that Israel could resume hostilities at any time—so the premium has not been fully unwound.

In one sentence: this round’s “ending” is more like a comma than a period—the next fuse in the Middle East front is still glowing on the other side of the strait. #夏日创作营