#沃什称AI是否引发通胀取决于美联储 Worse’s “talking to the market”: the blame for AI price hikes—don’t let inflation take the fall

In a congressional hearing in July, Federal Reserve Chair Waller gave markets a fresh talking point: AI infrastructure can push up chip and data center prices—that part is true—but it doesn’t turn into “persistent inflation.” The deciding power is with the Federal Reserve, not with AI.

His logic is pretty roundabout, yet internally consistent—AI price hikes are a one-time, supply-side adjustment, and supply will eventually catch up; this is different from the way geopolitical conflicts weaken supply capacity, which is where true inflation comes from. Waller even wants to recreate a Greenspan playbook from the 1990s: bet on AI lifting total factor productivity, create room for rate cuts, and even then, prices might not necessarily take off.

For trading, this has a few implications: if Waller really nails down “AI price hikes ≠ inflation,” the Fed’s hawkishness could cool, and AI capex chains like NVDA and MSFT would remain favorites under the “loose” narrative; liquidity premia could warm back up, and BTC would also get a cut. Conversely, once an AI-driven investment cycle kicks off a wage-to-price spiral and the Fed changes its tune, the story will need to be rewritten.

In one sentence: whether AI itself is a supply-side story or a demand-side story—how Waller draws that line with his pen matters more than an Nvidia earnings report. #夏日创作营