#夏日创作营 CZ: Is the bear market about to end?

CZ posted a playful jab on X: “Is the bear market almost over?” This seemingly casual question instantly ignited widespread debate in the community.

Crypto market sentiment has been at a low ebb for a long time. After Bitcoin’s early-2025 all-time high of about $124k, it continued to pull back, with the maximum drawdown exceeding 50%. It is currently hovering in the $60k to $65k range. The bear market has lasted for 9 months, and both short-term holders (STH, holding <6 months) and long-term holders (LTH, holding >6 months) are under heavy pressure.

At this moment, CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost’s latest analysis sparked broad discussion: the market is entering the final stage of the bear market, and a key STH/LTH cost-basis downward cross signal has just been triggered (requires a 3-day confirmation window to validate).

Do they have “insider information”? The answer is very likely no. This is more like a rational observation of on-chain data and historical cycles, not insider intel. Bitcoin’s cyclical behavior has never been a secret—it is repeatedly verified by investor behavior patterns.

Cost-basis cross: a classic signal for the bear market’s endgame

Cost basis (Realized Price) essentially reflects the average purchase price of holders on-chain. Darkfost pointed out that the STH cost basis has fallen sharply from $112.5k to about $69k, reflecting their ongoing buying at lower levels and the process of averaging down their holdings’ cost. When the STH cost basis crosses downward through the LTH cost basis, historical data shows that it often marks the bear market’s late stage rather than an immediate bottom.

It indicates that speculative short-term holders have sold in large numbers while at a loss or have been flushed out, and their coins are transferring to more steadfast long-term holders. The market completes its “painful cleansing,” laying the groundwork for the next accumulation phase. Conversely, when the STH cost basis crosses upward through the LTH cost basis, it usually confirms the start of a bull market.

This is not mysticism—it is a mirror of Bitcoin investors’ behavioral patterns. In bull markets, FOMO (fear of missing out) drives new money in, lifting the STH cost basis. In bear markets, panic selling suppresses it until equilibrium is reached.

The current cycle looks highly similar to earlier waves such as 2018 and 2022: STHs buy the dips and gradually pull the cost basis down to below “active” LTH. Institutional entry has not significantly changed this underlying behavior pattern—Bitcoin is still driven by the transfer of coins from “weak hands” to “strong hands.”

9-month stress test: who is holding on, and who has exited?

Over the past 9 months, Bitcoin has been staying below the STH cost basis, which is a typical bear-market feature historically.

Recent data shows that younger LTH cohorts (such as 6–12 months and 12–18 months) are deeply underwater. More seasoned high-conviction holders from 2–3 years ago have a cost basis around $50k, becoming a potential solid line of defense. The 30-day moving average of LTH SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) has fallen below 1, indicating that some long-term holders have started realizing losses, but it has not reached extreme capitulation levels. Cumulative realized losses are nearing $200 billion, which could set a new record, but that is precisely a necessary process for the formation of the cycle bottom.

Notably, the drawdown magnitude in this bear market has been relatively mild (about 51%), helped by higher institutional participation and greater market maturity—but its duration is already among the longest in history. CoinGecko data shows this is the fourth-longest bear market since 2014.

Does this mean you should buy the dip right away?

Reasonably viewing the limitations of signals

Darkfost clearly reminds: a signal triggering does not mean the bear market ends instantly. The formation of the bottom still takes time; it could continue to dip further or trade sideways for months. Historical bottoms are often accompanied by even more extreme panic, higher realized losses, and deeper unrealized drawdowns for LTH.

Potential support levels to reference (not predictions, only data observations): around the overall realized price (roughly the $50,000 to $55k range, once viewed as the “ultimate” bear-market bottom). The cost basis of older LTH. Long-term technical supports such as the 350-week moving average.

Optimistic factors include: whales continuing to accumulate (recent buys on the order of 2,700 BTC), signs of ETF inflows returning, and the long-term growth potential of infrastructure such as stablecoins (CZ has mentioned this multiple times).

A “terminal” signal for a DCA strategy? For regular players, this STH/LTH cross can serve as a reference “terminal” signal for a DCA (dollar-cost averaging) strategy—once the signal is confirmed, gradually reduce or pause mechanical buying, and shift to watching for signs that a bull market is starting (STH cost basis crossing upward). But any strategy must be combined with each person’s risk tolerance and diversification—never a one-and-done solution.

Bitcoin’s cycle has never died; it only repeatedly verifies human nature: the cycle of greed and fear. More institutions may change superficial liquidity, but the underlying holder behavior patterns are highly stable. That’s exactly what makes it compelling—transparent, verifiable data that can be learned from.

Outlook: patience and preparation in the final stage

CZ’s question may reflect what many people are thinking: is the bear market really about to end? From on-chain signals, we appear to be in the last stage, but “about to” is a relative concept. History tells us that the true turning point often happens quietly at the most hopeless moment.

Action suggestions (for reference only): continue monitoring the STH/LTH cost-basis confirmation window. Watch whether metrics like LTH SOPR, the scale of realized losses, and MVRV enter extreme bear-market territory.

Maintain a long-term perspective: every time Bitcoin recovers from a bear market, it sets new highs. The market will always be volatile, but the rotation of cycles never stops. Stay rational and data-driven—maybe the starting point of the next bull market is hidden in this “final stage” right now.