Teacher Zhi Xia’s key crypto timeline for this week! Will BTC go to 70k or drop back to 60k—single-direction action is about to land $BTC $ETH

To be honest, let me say this to everyone: This week is the most important turning-point week for the 2026 crypto market—no exception.
Three major blockbuster events are clustered back-to-back: the tail end of the Fed’s blackout period, the 7.23 U.S. CLARITY bill voting, and the 7.23 European Central Bank interest rate decision. With multiple macro catalysts stacking at once, the current tight range consolidation is about to end—either BTC pushes to 70k then peaks, or it retraces to 60k. One-way trading is about to take shape.

1. Macro direction: the Fed hides variables for further rate hikes
After the new chair, Wossh, takes office, this is the first key decision cycle. This blackout period has been unusually silent and gave no signs of easing expectations; the market is fully in an unknown game.
Right now, multiple voters have publicly turned hawkish. Combined with the situation in the Middle East pushing up oil prices and inflation rebounding again, CME data shows the probability of rate hikes before year-end has broken above 50%. Many people are still hoping for rate cuts, but in a high-interest-rate environment, crypto assets face extremely strong downside pressure. Once the decision turns hawkish, selling pressure on the board will be released in a concentrated burst, and the risk of short-term pullbacks is very high.

2. The lifeline for the industry: the 10-year-in-a-lifetime CLARITY bill vote
This is the compliance legislation window the crypto industry has been waiting for for a decade—it directly determines the timing rhythm of institutional capital entering the market. The bill needs 60 votes to clear the debate threshold. Currently, the Republican Party’s approval rate keeps falling, and Polymarket’s probability stands at only 32%.
Key point: If it can’t land before the Senate adjourns in August, the bill will very likely be shelved immediately, and restarting it will be difficult for years.
Let me map out two extreme scenario scripts for you:
Bill passes: BTC’s regulatory identity is clarified, institutional capital keeps flowing in; BTC surges toward 68k-70k, ETH is revalued, and the whole market sees a repair rally;
Bill fails: all the long-term compliance premium is cleared out, institutional expectations get delayed; BTC retraces to 60k, a key support level; the pullback pressure on smaller and mid-cap coins is even heavier.

Global liquidity: ECB rate decision adds more risk
The market expects the ECB to keep rates unchanged, but oil prices keep rebounding, pushing inflation higher—investors are quickly increasing bets on a rate hike in September.
A more hawkish Fed plus tighter liquidity in Europe means global risk assets face pressure at the same time, and the crypto market can’t stay isolated. Rate hikes are never a single-region story. In a global tightening cycle, bulls can hardly sustain a smooth, continuous uptrend.

Zhi Xia’s trading takeaways this week
With three core events landing on the same day, the disagreement between bulls and bears is about to be fully triggered; grinding in a range is only the buildup before the turn.
Here I remind all family members: at this stage, absolutely do not bet with a full position in a one-direction trade. Prepare both bull and bear playbooks in advance—keep enough “ammo,” and leave sufficient room for error.
Opportunities never run out in the market—what’s missing is patience. Once all the key cards for this week land and the trend becomes clear, we’ll follow through along the way and steadily eat the certainty in the trade. #夏日创作营