Lower than the 2008 financial crisis—but no one dares to buy.

This morning, the Korea open just blew up.

KOSPI opened down 4.16%, and at one point fell more than 4.5% intraday, closing at 6,515 points. Samsung Electronics fell more than 5%, and SK hynix also fell more than 5%. KOSDAQ triggered a circuit breaker directly, and automated sell orders were paused for 5 minutes.

Some people call it a “catch-up sell-off”—last Friday global semiconductor stocks dumped while Korea was closed for the holiday, and today it’s paying everything back at once.

KOSPI’s 12-month forward P/E has already dropped to 5.78x. It’s even lower than the trough during the 2008 financial crisis. It’s the lowest since 2004. A market cheaper than a Lehman moment is being abandoned by everyone.

How bad is this selloff? Since the June 22 peak, KOSPI is down nearly 25%. Global chip stocks erased more than $30k in market value in just a few weeks.

Have the fundamentals really collapsed?

Samsung Electronics’ operating profit in Q2 was 89.4 trillion won, up 18 times year over year. On the SK hynix side, KB Securities raised its target price from 3.8 million won to 4.2 million won, because it expects DRAM prices to rise 199% and NAND to rise 255%. Earnings surged 18 times, but the stock price fell 25%.

What is the market pricing in?

It’s not pricing “now”—it’s pricing “the future.” The market is betting that AI capex is unsustainable, and that once the tech giants’ money burns out, it won’t keep burning.

The strangest thing is happening

Just as Korean chip stocks were being bloodied—TSMC announced: a further $100 billion investment in the United States, taking the total investment to $265 billion. Four new fabs will be built, including the most advanced process nodes at 2 nanometers and below. $EVAA

TSMC CFO’s exact quote: “We are doing our utmost to expand capacity wherever expansion is possible.” On one side, capital is fleeing the secondary market. On the other, the industry leader is going all-in on capacity expansion.

Who’s wrong?

Wall Street has split

Goldman Sachs says: KOSPI target is 12,000 points—buy now, and there’s more than 20% upside. Even assuming earnings are cut by 41%—the equivalent of the worst level during the financial crisis—the “fair” level for KOSPI is still 8,965 points, far above today’s level. $HYPE

UBS says: 9,200 points target, but recommends “defensive positioning.”
Hanwha Securities says: the drawdown “seems excessive,” and U.S. tech giants’ earnings could be a rebound catalyst.

Three groups, three directions. But everyone is watching the same thing: this week’s U.S. tech giants’ earnings report. #美军结束对伊朗新一轮打击