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CICC Wealth Futures: The European-line futures market shows a volatile rebound, with an upward trend.

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Last week, European shipping-related futures markets saw a volatile rebound followed by upward movement, with relatively active trading. On the fundamentals side, changes in the geopolitical situation between the U.S. and Iran pushed market risk premium significantly higher; after crude oil prices surged quickly, it provided effective support to shipping costs. However, leading shipping lines—headed by Maersk—have already switched to a pricing-for-volume quotation strategy, confirming that the previous “holding prices to defend” promotional approach during the peak season cycle has ended. Meanwhile, global container shipping capacity is still continuously increasing, and pressure on the shipping supply side is starting to ease. Weak economic data in the eurozone and slow demand growth have exposed the concern that carriers are not securing sufficient incremental cargo volumes. As a result, a shipping supply-demand imbalance gap is beginning to appear, and expectations for a drop in the center of shipping prices are gaining momentum. It is recommended to pay attention to how short-term fluctuations in crude oil prices affect shipping costs, and to look for hedging opportunities created by the transition between off-peak and peak-season cycles. (CITIC Wealth Futures)
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