Breaking news! The new chair of the US Federal Reserve just took office and already “shut up,” and Wall Street overnight built an AI mind-reading tool—will your $BTC position be in trouble?

Let me tell you something. The Fed has changed leadership—Kevin Warsh has taken the chair, and he’s been stirring things up since May.

His first move: cutting out all the “leaks” of guidance from the Fed’s mouth. We used to get used to parsing the jargon-packed speeches from Powell, and the market could map out the rate path based on public hints. Life was pretty good. But Warsh has been clear: from now on, there will be less talking.

In Washington, D.C., there’s an investment company called F/m. Its office is only a quick accelerator pedal away from the Fed headquarters. Its CEO, Alexander Morris, told me that this sense of distance has actually become stronger. “We’ve made a lot of money off interpreting Fed statements,” he paused, “but now he says he wants us to stay silent.”

So what do they do? Last week, F/m rolled out an AI tool called “WarshGPT.” It ingests nearly 1,800 of Warsh’s documents and speech transcripts, and can simulate the way he thinks about economic issues. Development cost was under $1,000. Built on Anthropic’s Claude model, from conception to launch took just two weeks. Before going live, they also recruited a bunch of former Fed officials and communications memo writers to test it.

F/m isn’t the only one doing this. UBS has also built an interactive dashboard for clients to track the Fed’s policy tone. Strategist Elena Amoruso said the tool can assess, without bias, Warsh’s remarks during policy meetings. She told clients that in his speeches after presiding over his first policy meeting, the overall stance was “hawkish,” and he’s not only focused on inflation—he’s watching the labor market and economic growth too.

JPMorgan Asset Management’s strategist David Kelly is even more ruthless. He said that if the Fed cancels the “dot plot,” their team is already preparing to intensively study the FOMC members’ public speeches, looking for clues from the voting committee members’ mouths. But Kelly added: don’t go too aggressively—adjusting the Fed’s communication framework will take at least a few months.

Why is everyone so nervous? The first policy statement after Warsh took office had only about 130 words in full—normally it’s over 300. He himself also acknowledged that it was “shorter, more concise,” deliberately cutting out forward guidance. UBS’s numbers show that at that press conference, only 5% of his sentences were related to policy, compared with 27% in the Powell era.

This reminds me of the Greenspan days. Back then, the market joked that if Greenspan just said “good evening,” the stock market could drop. People also chased the “suitcase indicators”—if Greenspan came out with a louder suitcase, it meant he was preparing to adjust interest rates.

Now Warsh is returning to that style, and Wall Street is using AI to fill in the gaps. The problem is that lower transparency directly increases volatility. Steve Friedman, a former New York Fed official, said that reduced communication is negative for the economy, but for investors with solid analytical frameworks, it can actually generate excess returns. He also added that going forward, they should pay attention to the remarks of Fed Governor Christopher Waller—he’s the committee’s “barometer.”

So what does this have to do with retail traders? Gary Richardson, an economics professor at the University of California, Irvine, put it bluntly: for ordinary investors, figuring things out is already hard, and it will get even harder. Retailers either diversify their portfolios, or they watch helplessly as institutions spend big money to hire former Fed officials to get ahead.

The market’s disagreement on a September rate hike is already clear: CME FedWatch shows the probability of a hike is close to 59%, while Kalshi traders are betting on no change. Behind that split is the uncertainty created by Warsh’s “silent communication.”

So don’t just stare at the $BTC and $ETH candlestick charts. The Fed has changed its game, and institutions are using AI to parse every sentence Warsh says. And your advantage is that you can still hear the data I’m sharing with you today. Think clearly about which side of the information chain you’re on, then decide your next move. #Walrus $WAL #Sui #DePIN @Walrus

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