From a fundamental perspective, the current escalation of the U.S.-Iran conflict has once again hit gold prices. The closure of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has put pressure on gold. From a technical standpoint, looking at the short-term cycle on the hourly chart, gold is still in a rebound phase after the recent decline. Personally, although I got stopped out with a losing trade earlier this morning, the direction I’m looking at for the day remains unchanged. In terms of execution, I’m still mainly looking to trade from the short side (sell from the highs);



I’ve entered the market again to lay out a plan for a move to the downside. My opening price is 4027.39. I’m placing all stop losses at 4045. If gold rebounds to 4040, I’m planning to add once. The level I prefer to watch is 4000. If it breaks down, I’ll look lower to 3985! $XAUUSD
XAUUSD1.59%
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IdleFishDaoMember
· 07-20 06:55
Adding to at 4040, target 4000. This trade feels a bit aggressive—be careful not to get blown up.
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PatternDecoder
· 07-20 06:15
I’m following—bro, you’re solid!
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MempoolDiver
· 07-20 05:56
I also shorted at 4020 yesterday, and I’m still holding on. Seeing that you set your stop-loss so small makes me a bit nervous. But your direction is right—there’s definitely a mainstream view that a rebound to higher levels is likely. Hopefully tonight it will break 4000.
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VolUmbrella
· 07-20 05:56
This rebound is definitely a bit weak. I’m also waiting to fill a gap around 4040, but isn’t the stop-loss too small?
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StableFarmer
· 07-20 05:12
The escalation of the conflict between the US and Iran on gold is actually quite complex. In the short term, risk-off sentiment will indeed push up gold prices, but a closure of the Strait of Hormuz would cause a surge in crude oil, which in turn affects inflation expectations—and could end up suppressing gold instead. Your high-altitude perspective makes sense, but you should also watch for unexpected events. I’m currently in cash and observing; I’ll enter only after the signals become clear.
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