The market has been grinding at the bottom for more than half a month already. On-chain data shows that the marginal sell pressure from long-term holders is starting to exhaust—that is, there’s no longer anyone dumping spot. But buyer demand has still failed to form a unified push, leaving the market in a delicate situation: it can’t be driven down, yet nobody is buying...

Meanwhile, altcoin capital has also begun to flow out, and BTC’s market share has rebounded to around 59%.

Actually, from a personal perspective, weakness on the demand side is the core issue in the market. Although the Bitcoin spot ETF has ended eight consecutive weeks of net outflows, the inflow rhythm remains extremely unstable: after a single day of net inflows, it’s often followed by several days of small net outflows. Over the past 30 days, it’s still in net outflow territory, and institutional capital has not returned at scale.

Under this fragile balance, it’s impossible to determine whether we’ve already seen the bottom of a bear market—we can only judge the strength of the current move from a short-term perspective!
$63k is the pivot between bulls and bears; it also corresponds to the average cost basis of short-term holders, and it’s the first support level after the structure has been lifted. As long as this price can be held this week, there’s a chance to test $67k. In terms of the bigger direction, I’m more inclined to look bearish—I’m just waiting for a higher price..