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Thoughts after the Little God of Wealth World Cup—Can China’s national men’s soccer team make it onto the World Cup stage 4 years from now? (Conclusion of the World Cup prediction event)

The World Cup, grand and thrilling, has finally come to an end. Spain lifted the trophy, and Messi’s final performance failed to deliver the feat of defending the title—leaving people to lament. Over this past month-plus, I’ve been happy every day sharing with my family members my World Cup predictions and news. But once the excitement fades, I can’t shake the feeling that something is missing. It’s still the same topic—one that tends to dampen spirits, yet one that has to be brought up—whether in 4 years, China’s men’s football team can step onto that green field they dream of.

1. Qualifying for the World Cup is a dream for the Chinese people

The dream of reaching the World Cup has lingered in the hearts of Chinese people for decades.

“Three big balls sports can’t stay down; I won’t die with regret.” In the early days after the founding of the People’s Republic of China, when Marshal He Long took office as head of the State Sports Commission, he treated the revitalization of Chinese football as a major task. Not only did he establish the first national football team of the new China, he also pushed players to study in Hungary to learn advanced techniques. A founding marshal focusing on football, and placing sincere hopes on the “three big ball” sports including football, became a driving force behind the “big turnaround” battle for the three big ball sports.

In the 1990s, the Chinese national team hired German coach Schrappner to take charge of the team, opening the precedent of appointing foreign head coaches. The hope was to bring in advanced training concepts and tactical thinking to improve the team’s level. In 2000, the “magic coach” Milu took over the China national team. With a relaxed approach to leading the squad and flexible management for major tournaments, he led the team to squeeze through danger, and in 2002 achieved what remains China’s only time qualifying for the World Cup finals—fulfilling the World Cup dream of generations.

It was supposed to be the beginning, but it turned out to be the end. From 2002 until today, in the World Cup finals tournament, you no longer see China’s men’s team anywhere. The national team has kept charging, and kept coming up empty, again and again.

What saddens and disappoints Chinese fans isn’t only that the team collapses in the middle of the push to qualify for the World Cup—it’s also the humiliating record one by one in the Asian qualifiers for the World Cup. On February 1, 2022, in the AFC World Cup qualifiers for the 12-team stage group matches in the Qatar World Cup, China’s men’s team lost 1-3 away to Vietnam, completely missing the Qatar World Cup, and with that, the 62-year unbeaten record versus Vietnam also ended. On September 5, 2024, in the AFC World Cup qualifiers for the 18-team stage group matches for the 2026 Mexico–USA–Canada World Cup, China’s national team suffered a crushing 0-7 defeat to Japan away, setting multiple losing records: the biggest defeat in the national team’s history in an official match, the biggest defeat ever against Japan, and the most goals conceded in a single match in World Cup qualification. Every time China’s team is on the brink of qualifying, Chinese fans always joke, “There isn’t much time left for China’s team.” Behind the sarcasm lies regret and helplessness—“iron can’t be turned into anything useful” frustration.

To qualify for the World Cup, Chinese football can hardly be said to be not making efforts. After professional leagues took root, large amounts of capital poured into the scene. Many clubs spent heavily to build squads, hoping that high-intensity professional match environments would hone local players’ abilities. In recent years, to plug the national team’s roster shortcomings, China also rolled out a naturalization policy, bringing in foreign players who meet eligibility requirements to reinforce the frontline and midfield—only to add more chances in key matches of the qualifiers… The cruel reality, however, is that foreign coaches often have trouble adapting. Their approach may change the short-term training camp pattern, but it cannot “activate” China’s team’s full on-field strength for an entire match, and it can’t fill the huge gap created by a lack of reserve talent. Meanwhile, the money-dominated league compresses the chances for young local players to take the field, which instead breeds many problems. Naturalized players are ultimately only a short-term patch; they can’t solve the fundamental issue of youth development gaps. Round after round of investment and repeated attempts have produced little effect—leaving only frustration from repeated failures.

According to the latest figures from FIFA, China’s men’s team ranking in the world has been declining for years in a row. They have now dropped to 94th in the world and 15th in Asia. And Asia has only 9 automatic qualification spots.

FIFA president Gianni Infantino recently stated that after this World Cup ends, FIFA will formally study a proposal to expand the World Cup to 64 teams. After the news broke, many fans believed that with more spots, the difficulty for China to qualify would drop significantly. But based on the seat-allocation ratios across confederations, Asia’s spots would rise only to 11 to 12 seats—adding roughly 3 more qualification spots. For a China team ranked 15th, that dividend is very limited. 😂

This World Cup, when we saw that Cabo Verde—whose territory is only 4,033 square kilometers—became Spain’s only bone it couldn’t chew through; when we saw Curaçao, with a population of only 700k, earn goals and points on their first participation; when we saw the Democratic Republic of the Congo, outside the top 70 in the world rankings, surge into the knockout stage—we learned that the football field isn’t short on success and miracles, as long as you put in enough effort, grit, and a heart that wants to win. But the question is: can these things be reclaimed by the national team? In the end, the Little God of Wealth just wants to say one thing: “China’s national team, take a little more care—hope that in four years, the Little God of Wealth can predict on the square whether China can beat Spain. Even if there’s no miracle, we still believe!”