7.20 Midday Thoughts

Over the weekend, BTC made a small upside breakout out of the range box. In the early hours of this morning, it pushed up to test the 64967 level, then surged and quickly pulled back. At the moment, it’s stuck in a narrow consolidation range of 64,400-64,700, grinding sideways. Let me first lay out clearly the core issue with the current chart: during this entire rebound, trading volume has severely contracted. There has been absolutely no fresh off-exchange incremental capital coming in to actively drive the market higher—this is only passive “repair” from earlier stop-and-take-profit selling. After the bounce, the follow-through momentum is seriously lacking, and there’s always the risk of a pullback under short-term pressure at any time.

From the perspective of the cycle structure, the 1-hour indicators have already entered the overbought zone, and upside momentum is clearly weakening. The 4-hour chart is temporarily holding above the Bollinger midline, but the suppressing moving averages in the medium-to-long term are still positioned above the price, tightly capping it. Overall, the medium-term trend remains weak and has not been fundamentally reversed—don’t blindly chase the upside just because of a small short-term rebound.

Macro-level pressure has still not been lifted: ongoing US-Iran geopolitical tensions continue to tug at the market. Oil has held above $90, while inflation concerns have resurfaced. Expectations for the Fed to cut rates within the year continue to cool down. The dollar and US Treasury yields have ticked up slightly, continuing to weigh on crypto risk assets. On top of that, the US CLARITY crypto bill is still stuck at the Senate voting stage. The two parties can’t agree on the ethical provisions, and regulatory uncertainty hangs overhead. With that, big capital doesn’t dare to move in with large-sized positioning, making it difficult for the market to sustain a continuous, one-way rally trend.

BTC rebound: pullback around 65,300-65,800; target: around 63,900-63,400
ETH rebound: pullback around 1,900-1,940; target: around 1,840-1,800
$BTC $ETH #美军结束对伊朗新一轮打击