7.20 SOL trading plan

A rebound capped between 77.3-77.8—short on the pressure. Stop loss above 78.5. Cut half at 75.5; the rest looks to 74.4-73.5.

SOL’s correlation with BTC is 0.97. Big BTC is hovering around 64,800 and can’t push higher, and SOL also doesn’t have an independent trend. At 77.5, it’s surged three times but keeps getting slammed back—bulls’ volume can’t keep up. Weekend trading volume is shrinking; all the rebounds are hollow, “up-only” moves with no volume. In this kind of market, it’s easiest to have everything instantly knocked back to square one with a single bearish candle.

Resistance overhead: 77.3-77.8. All the daily moving averages are pressing down there. The 7-day, 15-day, and 30-day MAs form a resistance band at 76.1-78.1; rebounds are basically just handing out free heads.

Downside targets: 75.0-75.5 as the first stop; if it breaks down, look at 74.4-73.5.

① On the 1-hour chart, it pushes higher multiple times and gets rejected, then falls back. After the Bollinger Bands tighten to an extreme, the direction is undecided—the price is locked in a 74.4-76 box-range. The SOL long/short ratio in futures is 2.63. Retail longs are overcrowded; once BTC turns, SOL will drop about 1.8x as fast as BTC.

② The geopolitical conflict between the U.S. and Iran continues. Oil prices are rising again, reigniting worries about inflation; risk appetite is being suppressed hard. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has climbed to around 4.60%. The opportunity cost of holding high-beta assets like SOL keeps getting higher.

③ From July to now, Solana spot ETF inflows are only $3.65 million, far below last year’s peak. While SBI Holdings using Solana to issue JPY stablecoins is a long-term positive, the price has already Price In in the short term. Good news fully priced in becomes bad news.

It’s lively on-chain, but if the candlesticks can’t move, they can’t move. Don’t turn the story of fundamentals into a belief for short-term trading. $SOL ‌