A Brief Analysis of BTC Short-Term Trends from Dow Theory, Chan Theory, Elliott Wave Theory, Volume-Price Relationships, Order Flow, and Price Action

$BTC ‌#BTC I. Dow Theory
Major trend (1-hour timeframe): The main downtrend that began after the historical high on May 6 at 82,814 is still ongoing. The price fell from 82,814, through the June 1 secondary high at 73,975 and the June 15 rebound high at 67,247, all the way down to the July 1 low at 57,721, for a cumulative drop of 25,093. After bottoming on July 1, the bulls launched an ABC rebound (A-wave 64,597 → B-wave 61,470 → C-wave 64,660). After the C-wave ended, it pulled back to the July 13 low of 61,750. A V-shaped reversal appeared on July 14-15, and the price surged to 65,510 (a new high since July). However, from July 16-17 there were consecutive sharp declines, dropping from 65,510 to 62,462 at 13:00 on July 17, fully giving back all the gains from July 14-15 and setting a new low since July 13. On July 18-19, a strong rebound occurred: from the July 18 low of 63,842 it climbed to an early-morning July 19 high of 64,910, for a daily increase of about 1,068. On July 19, it traded sideways and consolidated in the 64,200-64,900 range, and the current price is 64,516, located inside this consolidation pivot. In the early hours of July 20, there was a rise followed by a pullback: the high reached 65,040, then it retreated back to 64,516. The major trend may be transitioning from a deep decline into a recovery phase after building a bottom, but the key resistance at 65,500 has not been effectively broken yet.
Short-term trend (15-minute timeframe): The short-term uptrend that began from the low at 62,462 at 13:30 on July 17 is still continuing. The short-term lows shifted upward from 62,462 (July 17 13:30) to 63,842 (July 18 01:00) → 64,238 (July 19 12:00), showing the characteristic of “lows continuing to rise,” but the magnitude of the upward shift is clearly weakening. The short-term highs rose from 64,353 (July 17 18:45) breaking to 64,910 (July 19 02:00) → 65,040 (July 20 00:00), setting a new high since July 17; however, the July 20 pullback after pushing to new highs indicates stronger resistance above 65,000.
Dow conclusion: The major trend may be undergoing a turn, but the early-morning July 20 push up and pullback to 65,040 shows that the 65,500 resistance remains strong. The short-term trend has entered a rising consolidation phase. 64,000-64,500 is the core short-term support, and 65,000-65,500 is the key short-term resistance. If price can hold above 65,000 and break 65,500, it would open upside room of 66,500-67,500; if it fails and breaks below 64,000, the rebound may end and the market could return to a correction in the 63,000-62,000 range.
II. Chan Theory
Fractal structure: On the 15-minute timeframe:
Bottom fractals: On July 17 at 13:30, a strong bottom fractal formed at 62,462, followed by sustained rebounds. On July 18, multiple bottom fractals continued to shift upward, showing strong bull follow-through. On July 19 at 12:00, a new bottom fractal formed at 64,238, but with weaker strength.
Top fractals: On July 19 at 02:00, a top fractal formed at 64,910, followed by a pullback to 64,238. On July 20 at 00:00, a new top fractal formed at 65,040, followed by a rapid drop to 64,516, showing that bearish pressure above 65,000 has emerged.
Bi (strokes) and segments:
From the 62,462 bottom fractal to the 64,910 top fractal (July 19), it formed an upward stroke, with a rise of about 2,448 and relatively strong force.
From the 64,910 top fractal to the 64,238 bottom fractal (July 19 at 12:00), it formed a downward stroke, with a drop of about 672 and weaker force, showing bull follow-through.
From the 64,238 bottom fractal to the 65,040 top fractal (July 20), it formed an upward stroke, with a rise of about 802; the force is clearly weaker (compared with the prior stroke +2,448).
From the 65,040 top fractal to the current 64,516 (in progress), it formed a downward stroke, with a drop already of 524 and relatively strong force.
Central pivot zone:
The prior downtrend central pivot, 62,500-64,000, has been fully broken upward and has become strong support below.
The new rising central pivot is being built in the 64,000-65,000 range. On July 18-19, the candlesticks interleaved densely within this range. The current price 64,516 is inside this pivot and slightly near its upper edge, but the early July 20 push up followed by a pullback indicates pressure at the upper edge.
A new upper pressure central pivot is forming in the 65,000-65,500 range. The two times on July 15 and July 20 that it was pushed up could not effectively break through.
Chan conclusion: The upward stroke’s strength is clearly weakening (from +2,448 down to +802), while the new downward stroke’s strength is relatively stronger (-524), indicating a decline in bull power. The previous downtrend central pivot has been broken upward, and the new rising central pivot is being constructed. In the short term, watch whether an effective bottom fractal support can form around 64,000-64,500; if it forms, the upward stroke may restart its push toward 65,500. If it directly breaks below 64,000, the rebound may end, with targets at 63,000-62,500.
III. Elliott Wave Theory
Based on the 1-hour wave structure, the movement since the May 6 high of 82,814 is re-labeled as follows:
Major five-wave decline (completed):
1st wave: 82,814 → 78,500 (May 7), magnitude about -4,300
2nd wave: 78,500 → 81,051 (May 10), magnitude about +2,551
3rd wave: 81,051 → 59,095 (June 5), magnitude about -21,956 (main impulsive drop)
4th wave: 59,095 → 67,247 (June 15), magnitude about +8,152
5th wave: 67,247 → 57,721 (July 1), magnitude about -9,526
ABC rebound correction (has evolved into a more complex structure):
A wave: 57,721 → 64,597 (July 6), magnitude +6,876
B wave: 64,597 → 61,470 (July 8), magnitude -3,127
C wave: 61,470 → 64,660 (July 10), magnitude +3,190 (C-wave ended)
X wave (correction): 64,660 → 61,750 (July 13), magnitude -2,910
A new upswing wave (in progress, but facing tests):
1st wave (new): 61,750 → 65,510 (July 15), magnitude +3,760, strong force
2nd wave pullback: 65,510 → 62,462 (July 17), magnitude -3,048; the pullback reached 80.5%, far beyond the normal range for a 2nd-wave pullback
3rd wave (current): 62,462 → 65,040 (July 20), magnitude +2,578; force is acceptable but a push-up followed by a pullback has already appeared
Wave conclusion: Currently it may be in the 3rd wave stage of the new upswing cycle, but the 3rd-wave high at 65,040 has not yet broken above the 1st-wave high at 65,510. The 1st wave rise of 3,760 was strong, and the 2nd wave pullback of 3,048 (80.5%) was too deep, but the 3rd wave has already started. However, the 3rd wave’s strength (+2,578) is weaker than the 1st wave (+3,760), and a push-up followed by a pullback has occurred—so be cautious about a 3rd-wave failure. If the 3rd wave can break above the 1st-wave high at 65,510, it would confirm that the 5-wave upswing structure is valid, with targets at 67,000-68,000. If the 3rd wave gets rejected in the 65,000-65,500 zone and then falls below 64,000, the upswing structure may fail again.
IV. Volume-Price Analysis
Overall volume-price characteristics: The July 1 crash phase showed extremely obvious increased-volume behavior. During the July 1-10 rebound phase, the volume expanded moderately. From July 10-13, the pullback saw shrinking volume. On July 14-15, there was a volume-backed breakout, with positive volume-price coordination. On July 16-17, there was a volume expansion during a sharp selloff, crashing from around 65,000 down to 62,462. On July 18-19, during the rebound, trading volume was moderate: it rose from 63,842 to 64,910, but the volume was clearly lower than on July 15, indicating that bullish capital’s willingness to enter has weakened. From the end of July 19 to early July 20, price traded in a 64,500-65,000 range; when it pushed toward 65,040 in the early hours of July 20, volume did not effectively expand, suggesting insufficient chase-buying capital, followed by a rapid pullback. Overall, it forms a volume-price combination of “crash with volume expansion + bottom-building with volume contraction + rebound with declining volume expansion + push-up then pullback with contracted volume,” which requires caution for volume-price divergence.
Key volume-price nodes:
At July 13 18:15, there was a low-volume stop-the-fall candle (volume only 155 million), forming a stage bottom at 61,750.
At July 14 12:00, a high-volume bullish candle appeared (volume at the 195 million level), rising from 62,784 up to 63,888, confirming the start of a bull offensive.
At July 15 12:30, a “tonnage” bullish candle appeared (volume at the 486 million level), rising from 64,664 to 64,876, confirming the start of wave 1.
At July 16 08:30, a high-volume bearish candle appeared (volume at the 6.88T level), crashing from 64,089 to 63,834, confirming the bears began a counterattack.
At July 17 13:30, a high-volume bearish candle appeared (volume at the 437 million level), crashing from 62,828 to 62,462, confirming the stage low.
At July 18 12:00, a high-volume bullish candle appeared (volume at the 382 million level), rising from 64,042 to 64,200, confirming the rebound began.
At July 19 22:00, a high-volume bullish candle appeared (volume at the 622 million level), rising from 64,328 to 64,855, but it failed to continue afterward.
At July 20 00:00, there was a high-volume push-up followed by pullback (volume at the 809 million level), rising from 64,686 to 65,040 then pulling back to 64,503, showing heavy sell pressure overhead.
Recent volume-price status: After the early July 20 push toward 65,040, price quickly pulled back. Volume expanded but the candle closed lower, forming a “volume expansion but stalls” pattern, which is a warning signal.
Volume-price conclusion: During July 18-19, the rebound’s volume strength was clearly weaker than on July 15. On July 20, the push-up followed by pullback came with volume expansion and a stalling look. Key observation points: if the pullback to 64,000-64,500 contracts volume and stops falling, then wave 3 may continue; if the price breaks down below 64,000 with volume expansion, the rebound ends.
V. Order Flow
Volume distribution (Volume Profile): In the recent 5 days (July 16-20), the volume control point (POC) is at 64,113. The current price 64,516 is about 403 above the POC, indicating the market is in a slight premium state above the value area (Above Value).
Current position analysis: Price 64,516 is above the POC 64,113, meaning it is above the value area. The Value Area is 62,813-64,813; the current price is near the upper edge of the Value Area (64,813), showing that short-term buyers are slightly stronger but facing pressure near the upper edge. The lower edge of the Value Area at 62,813 is strong short-term support, and 64,813 is short-term resistance.
High-volume nodes (HVN):
65,000-65,500: Overhead resistance HVN (dense trading zone on July 15; strong resistance currently; verified again on July 20)
64,000-64,500: Core support HVN (dense trading zone on July 18-19; current strong support)
62,000-63,000: Downside support HVN (dense trading zone on July 16-17; has turned into support)
59,000-60,000: Extreme support HVN (dense trading zone on July 1)
Delta analysis: During the July 18-19 rebound, Delta turned positive but with limited magnitude (+2.0 billion level). This is clearly weaker than the +4.0 billion seen on July 15, confirming that the aggressive buy order weakened. During the early July 20 push-up and pullback, Delta quickly turned negative, showing seller strength increasing. The current Delta MA12 shifted slightly negative from around the zero axis (-1.06B), indicating that buyer strength has weakened and seller strength has started to show.
Order flow conclusion: Price is slightly above the POC at 64,113; short-term buyers are slightly dominant, but the advantage is weakening. Overhead, 65,000 and 65,500 are two key HVN resistances, and on July 20 the 65,000 resistance was verified again as effective. Below, 64,000 and 64,500 are two key HVN supports. If Delta keeps turning positive and shrinking volume can stop the fall in 64,000-64,500, then wave 3 may continue. If Delta turns deeply negative again and price breaks below 64,000, the rebound ends.
VI. Price Action
Support and resistance levels:
Strong resistance: 82,814 (stage high), 73,975 (June 1 high), 67,500 (June 15 rebound high), 65,510 (July 15 high), 65,040 (July 20 high)
Key resistance: 66,000 (psychological level), 65,500 (July 15 push-up then pullback zone), 65,000 (psychological level + verified on July 20)
Key supports: 64,500 (upper edge of the July 19 consolidation area), 64,000 (divider between bulls and bears), 63,500 (breakout zone on July 18), 63,842 (July 18 low), 62,462 (July 17 crash low), 61,750 (July 13 low), 57,721 (July 1 crash low)
Candlestick patterns:
At July 13 18:15, a candlestick with a long lower wick appeared, forming the “hammer line” bottom structure at 61,750.
At July 14 12:00, a big bullish candle appeared (body around +1,104), surging from 62,784 to 63,888, forming a “breakout bullish candle” pattern.
At July 15 13:15, a candlestick with a long upper wick appeared (upper wick around 300). It pushed up from 65,200 to 65,510 then pulled back, forming a “evening star” bearish pattern.
At July 17 13:30, a big bearish candlestick with a long lower wick appeared (body around -329, lower wick around 366). It crashed from 62,828 to 62,462 and then rebounded to 62,871, forming a “hammer line” bottom structure.
At July 18 22:00, a big bullish candle appeared (body around +133), rising from 64,692 to 64,825, forming a “breakout bullish candle” pattern.
At July 20 00:00, a candlestick with a long upper wick appeared (upper wick around 354). It pushed up from 64,686 to 65,040 then pulled back to 64,503, forming a “shooting star” bearish pattern, warning that overhead resistance is strong.
Trend structure:
Short term: Since July 17’s rise from 62,462, an upward channel is forming, but the push-up then pullback on July 20 shows strong resistance at the upper rail. The lower support is around 63,500, and the upper resistance is around 65,500.
Medium term: The downtrend line since May 6 at 82,814 has been broken, and price is above this trend line. But the push-up then pullback on July 20 suggests the validity of the break needs confirmation.
Price action conclusion: In the short term, price is in wave 3 of a new upswing cycle, but the July 20 “shooting star” pattern warns of strong overhead resistance. 64,000-64,500 is the short-term bulls’ defensive zone, and 65,000-65,500 is the divider between bulls and bears: a breakout would open upside space of 66,500-67,500; if 64,000 is lost, price may retrace back into 63,000-62,500.
Comprehensive assessment
Dow Theory provides signals that the major trend may be turning, but the push-up then pullback to 65,040 on July 20 shows resistance at 65,500 is still strong, so the turn has not been confirmed. Chan Theory indicates the upward stroke’s strength is clearly weakening (from +2,448 down to +802), and the new downward stroke is relatively stronger, meaning bull power is fading. Elliott Wave Theory suggests it may be in the 3rd wave stage of a new upswing, but the 3rd wave’s strength is weaker than the 1st wave and a push-up then pullback occurred—so a 3rd-wave failure must be watched. The volume-price relationship presents a warning combination of “rebound volume expansion declining + push-up then pullback with volume expansion and stalling.” Order flow shows the POC at 64,113, with price in a slight premium state; Delta MA12 has turned negative, meaning buyer strength is weakening. Price action shows a “shooting star” bearish pattern, with short-term bull advantage weakening.
Suggested short-term strategy:
Bullish scenario: If price around 64,000-64,500 shows shrinking volume and stops falling, forms a bottom fractal, and Delta turns positive, you may go long, targeting 65,000 → 65,500 → 66,500, with a stop-loss at 63,500. However, reduce position size, since the push-up then pullback on July 20 indicates risk is increasing.
Bearish scenario: If the rebound reaches around 65,000-65,200 and a top fractal appears along with volume-backed selling, confirming that the 65,500 resistance is effective, you can short with targets at 64,000 → 63,500 and a stop-loss at 65,700. The July 20 “shooting star” pattern supports this scenario.
Current status: At 64,516, price is in the pullback phase after the 3rd-wave push. Short-term bull advantage is weakening. The recommendation is mainly to wait and observe: consider going long after the pullback to 64,000-64,500 confirms support, or after a break above 65,500 confirms the 3rd wave continuation and then chase higher. If price directly breaks below 64,000, the rebound may end—be alert for a deeper pullback.