The rebound 1874-1890 faces resistance and stays short; set a stop loss above 1905. Reduce the position by half in 1840-1850, and keep the rest to watch 1826-1804.

ETH is standing above 1900 for the first time in 43 days, but after topping at 1946 it fell back, and in the past 4 hours it has been trapped in a range box between 1826-1874, repeatedly grinding. It failed to break through the 1874 level even after three attempts; the longer the consolidation with shrinking volume lasts, the higher the probability of a bearish reversal.

Upside resistance: 1874-1890, with dual suppression from the 4-hour box upper boundary + EMA20

Downside targets: 1826 for the first stop; if it breaks down, look for 1804-1791

① On the 1-hour chart, the MACD histogram turns negative; although volume increases, price can’t go up—this is a typical case of reduced volume stagnation. The 4-hour Bollinger Bands are extremely tight, with volatility compressed to the intra-month low. After shrinking-volume consolidation builds momentum, the probability of breaking down increases.

② The contract long/short position ratio is 1.72. Retail longs have a high concentration; once price comes under pressure in the short term, long profit-taking and sell pressure can quickly surge.

③ The whale pension-usdt.eth holds about 50 thousand ETH short positions on Hyperliquid, worth about $93.3 million. With an unrealized loss of $8.31 million, it still doesn’t retreat—top players are betting on this pullback.

The longer the range-bound box trading lasts, the harsher the one-way move after the break. When direction hasn’t emerged, patience is worth more than courage. $ETH