A brief analysis of BTC short-term trend through Dow Theory, Chan Theory, Elliott Wave Theory, the relationship between price and volume, order flow, and price action (strategy suggestions)

$BTC ‌#BTC 综合研判
Dow Theory provides signals that the major trend may be in the process of turning, but the July 20 push up and subsequent pullback to 65,040 shows that the 65,500 resistance remains strong; the reversal has not been confirmed yet.
Chan Theory indicates that upward stroke momentum is clearly weakening (from +2,448 down to +802), and the new downward stroke momentum is relatively stronger, suggesting the bulls’ power is fading.
Elliott Wave Theory may place BTC in the 3rd wave stage of a new upward cycle, but the 3rd wave’s strength is weaker than the 1st wave and it has shown a push up and pullback; be cautious about a potential failure of the 3rd wave.
The price-volume relationship shows a warning combo of “rebound with decreasing volume + push to highs followed by pullback with lagging volume.”
Order flow shows POC at 64,113, with price in a slight premium state; Delta MA12 turns negative, and buying strength weakens.
Price action shows a bearish “shooting star” pattern, indicating reduced short-term bullish advantage.

Short-term strategy suggestions:

Bullish scenario: If price contracts in the 64,000-64,500 area with reduced volume, forms a bottoming signal, and Delta turns positive, you could go long. Targets: 65,000 → 65,500 → 66,500. Stop-loss: 63,500. However, reduce position size, as the July 20 push up and pullback suggests higher risk.

Bearish scenario: If the rebound reaches 65,000-65,200 and forms a top divergence/pattern alongside selling pressure with increased volume, and if the 65,500 resistance is confirmed effective, you could short. Targets: 64,000 → 63,500. Stop-loss: 65,700. The July 20 “shooting star” supports this scenario.

Current status: 64,516 is in the pullback phase after the 3rd-wave impulse; short-term bullish advantage is weakening. Overall, it’s suggested to wait and watch—consider going long only after the pullback confirms support at 64,000-64,500, or wait for a breakout above 65,500 to confirm continuation of the 3rd wave before chasing. If 64,000 is broken down directly, the rebound may be over; be alert to a deeper pullback.