Kimi K3 shocks Anthropic’s valuation expectations

Golden Finance reported that on July 19, in the prediction market on Polymarket, the probability that Anthropic’s valuation would reach $1.5 trillion by the end of the year dropped sharply. Polymarket linked this shift to the release of KimiK3 by Moon’s Dark Side, and said Anthropic’s valuation expectations were hit. On July 17, traders thought the probability of Anthropic reaching a $1.5 trillion valuation within the year was about 77%; by July 18, the figure fell to 67%, a drop of roughly 10 to 11 percentage points in a day. The change in market sentiment occurred after KimiK3 was released.

It is worth noting that what fell was the contract price in the prediction market, not Anthropic’s actual valuation shrinking by 11%. The contract bets on whether Anthropic’s valuation can reach or exceed $1.5 trillion on or before December 31, 2026; the probability change only reflects traders’ expectations of this target.

Anthropic’s most recent public fundraising took place on May 28, when it completed a $65 billion Series H round, with a post-money valuation of $965 billion. To meet the $1.5 trillion target set by the Polymarket contract, its valuation would still need to increase by $535 billion—an increase of more than 55%.