Yang Guang bit | July 20 $BTC precise strategy—master the trend end to end

Today's thinking
Short entry timing: pullback to 65,000-65,200
Short add-to position range: pullback 65,400-65,600
Stop-loss: above 65,800
Take profit in stages
First target: 64,300-64,500
Second target: 63,900-64,100
Light-position long reference: on a retracement of 64,000-64,200, enter lightly; stop-loss 63,700; targets 64,800-65,000—fast in, fast out
Core conclusion
BTC started an oversold rebound from the 61,800 low, surged to around 65,088 before running into resistance and then fell back. It is currently in a consolidation and chop near 64,700. On the macro front, the Fed has entered its July decision “silence period,” with a lack of forward-looking policy guidance. Meanwhile, rate-hike expectations for September have warmed up. Coupled with escalating Middle East conflicts boosting oil prices and increasing the risk of an inflation rebound, long/short factors are intertwined. On the liquidity side, ETF inflow continuity remains insufficient; spot selling pressure from long-term holders still exists, and rebound momentum is gradually weakening. In the short term, it will likely keep a range-bound, choppy pattern. The strong resistance band above is 65,000-65,200. The key support below is in the 64,000-64,200 area. Overall today is mainly about selling into the high and buying the dips within the range: prioritize setting up short positions on rebounds at higher levels; longs on retracements are only for quick in-and-out trades.

News & liquidity breakdown
I. International finance & geopolitical news
International finance: The Fed has officially entered the silence period before the July FOMC meeting, with missing policy forward guidance. Previously, several voters released hawkish signals; Dallas Fed Chair Logan directly called for moderate rate hikes. The market has priced the probability of a September rate hike up to 65%, and the probability of no rate change in July is close to nine-tenths. Although the June CPI data fell off in stages, the Middle East situation has pushed energy prices to rebound, raising inflation “stickiness” risk again. Expectations for looser monetary policy continue to be delayed, which still weighs on risk assets at the macro level—Caixin.

Geopolitical situation: The full-scale escalation of military tensions between the U.S. and Iran has led to a collapse in shipping volume through the Strait of Hormuz to one-tenth of normal levels. Iran’s official announcement says the strait is fully closed. International oil prices jumped more than 3% today. On one hand, the rebound in energy prices strengthens expectations of inflation repeating; it indirectly pressures the crypto market. On the other hand, safe-haven sentiment rises due to geopolitical risks, providing a temporary floor for BTC’s safe-haven attribute. Long/short impacts are intertwined, resulting in today’s headline amid choppy trading.

II. On-chain & capital data
Institutional liquidity: BTC spot ETF flows have been fluctuating and choppy. After the previous period saw the largest single-day net outflow in July of $425 million, there has been a small rebound in the last period. However, daily inflows are only around $100 million. Institutional long-line buying lacks sustained continuity, so this rebound lacks support from continuous incremental capital—today’s headline.

On-chain supply of positions: During this downturn, long-term holders with positions of 1-2 years became the main source of sell pressure. This group of spot holders who were “picked up” during the 2024 ETF peak has exited at a loss, and the accumulated selling pressure is sizable. During the current rebound, selling pressure is still being released continuously, but the bottom’s bid support is limited, which clearly constrains how high the rebound can go—today’s headline.

Futures liquidity: Disagreements between longs and shorts in the derivatives market are intensifying. During the rebound, shorts add to positions to resist, while leveraged long capital is entering more cautiously. There hasn’t been a unilateral, trend-forming capital force. In the short term, the market is likely to remain in a range-bound, choppy structure. $BTC ‌#美军结束对伊朗新一轮打击