Tongge’s 7.20 BTC outlook

$BTC Enter at around 650-655, stop at 660, first target 640, second target 635.

No news over the weekend. The chart has been inching up from 628 to 648. This isn’t a blow-off rally; it’s pushing higher slowly while the market’s quieter. It looks steady, but it hasn’t passed a volume expansion test yet. The real test is after Monday’s capital returns.

Outside, the “thunder” isn’t small. The US-Iran situation is still heating up, and oil prices and inflation expectations could rise again at any time. The AI and semiconductor sectors are also pulling back, so risk-asset sentiment is tight. This week is also earnings week plus the Fed’s quiet period, so volatility won’t be small.

The funding picture, though, lit a small light. After 8 consecutive weeks of net outflows, last week saw the first net inflow across the whole industry. Bitcoin ETFs also recorded net inflows again. Single-week inflows show someone is cautiously picking up coins, but whether it can be sustained is the key.

65000-65500 is still the testing ground for short-term entries. The question is whether the price pushed up over the weekend can hold on Monday—this is the real answer. If it spikes up and nobody takes it, then how it goes up is how it comes back.