Based on various data, the current market sentiment is fractured and there is significant disagreement. Two whale groups have consistently taken opposite actions.

Group A: per-transaction transfer size is greater than $10M, mainly involving inflows;
Group B: per-transaction is between $1M and $10M, mainly involving outflows;
These two forces counterbalance each other, and the disagreement is intense. When Group A is stronger, the BTC price tends to weaken; when Group B is stronger, the price stabilizes (or rebounds).
At present, Group B has a slight advantage, so the weak-rebound logic can be supported.
Meanwhile, BTC balances on exchanges have remained at a relatively high level throughout 7/13-7/15, with no obvious decline.
This is completely different from the strong rebound path during 2/25-3/6, when balances fell markedly.
From this alone, it is not hard to see that overall demand is not strong—i.e., the demand side has not formed an overwhelming advantage over the supply side.
This situation has little impact on cycle traders, but short-term trading is hellish in difficulty and can easily lead to a situation where both sides get “double-killed,” which is not suitable for ordinary investors.