7.20 Morning Thoughts

This morning, I’ll chat with everyone about the real situation with BTC. Early in the morning, an attempt to spike and test 64,967 was smashed back down, and the current chart is hovering around 64,500.

Let me lay out the current “face value” of the market clearly for everyone:
Don’t be misled by the small rebound over the weekend. But trading volume has shrunk severely—in other words, this upswing doesn’t have any real outside “fresh money” propping it up. It’s just a passive rebound brought about by take-profit after the sell-off, not an active “bulls charging” move. The follow-through is especially weak. On the daily timeframe, price is still being held down below the medium-to-long-term moving averages. As for the bigger mid-term trend, it’s still a relatively weak setup—don’t mistake a two-day small rebound as a complete reversal and think the market is going full bull run.

There’s also nothing constructive on the macro side to give it support. Recently, comments from Federal Reserve officials have been overall hawkish, and expectations for rate cuts have continued to cool. On top of that, the U.S. CLARITY crypto bill is still stuck at the stage of voting in the Senate. The two parties can’t agree on the ethics provisions, and regulatory uncertainty has been hanging over the market. Big capital simply doesn’t dare to step in boldly to push BTC higher, so it’s naturally difficult for the market to show a sustained, one-way uptrend.

BTC trade idea: hover around 65,300-65,800, with targets looking at 63,900-63,400.
ETH trade idea: hover around 1,900-1,940, with targets looking at 1,840-1,800.
$BTC $ETH #ETH站稳1900美元