## Gold Morning News | July 20, Sunday 🪨

**In one sentence: The US-Iran situation keeps worsening, safe-haven funds return, and gold prices have risen back above $4,000.**

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### Core data

| Indicator | Value | Change |
|------|------|------|
| XAU/USD | $4,017.48 | +0.55% |
| COMEX Gold | $4,023.53 | +$31.43 (+0.79%) |
| 24h range | $3,959 - $4,029 | |
| AU9999 | ~876 RMB/gram | +5.52 |
| DXY | 100.83 | +0.06% |
| US 2Y | 4.185% | |
| ATH drawdown | $5,405→$4,017 | **-25.7%** |

Brand jewelry gold: 1220-1222 RMB/gram | Recycling: ~860 RMB/gram | Bank gold bars: 887-896 RMB/gram

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### Major events overnight

**1. The US-Iran conflict enters its 8th day, with intensity escalating**
- The US military carried out airstrikes on Iran for the **8th consecutive night**, expanding target types from military facilities to civilian infrastructure such as bridges, tunnels, and seawater desalination plants ([Caixin]
- Iran expanded its retaliation to Kuwait, Jordan, and Bahrain—an attack on a Jordan base resulted in **2 US servicemembers dead and 1 missing**, the first time US forces have suffered casualties in this round of conflict ([Observer Network])
- Iran announced a comprehensive blockade of the Strait of Hormuz; **the strait is basically closed again**, with only a very small number of vessels passing after turning off transponders for response
- The US State Department issued a **global security warning**, warning that the situation may further escalate

**2. Fed hawkish tone unchanged**
- FedWatch: The probability of keeping policy unchanged in July is 85.6%, with a 14.4% rate hike; **a 53.5% probability of a rate hike in September**
- Dallas Fed Logan: If inflation persists, interest rates may need to rise further
- Core CPI remains at 2.6%, and the “zero tolerance” stance from Waller remains unchanged
- The market has shifted from “rate cut expectations” to a “when will there be a rate hike” debate

**3. The V-shaped rebound logic for gold prices**
- Last Friday after CPI, gold fell below $4,000 to $3,950, but rebounded $67 within 48 hours back to $4,017
- Driving force shift: The benefit of cooling CPI has already been absorbed by the hawkish Waller rhetoric + a rebound in the US dollar; **the current pricing anchor is US-Iran geopolitical risk**
- Fidelity International sent a signal to add positions again—this year it reduced from overweight to neutral, and now believes “the conditions that support gold’s long-term trend are still in place”

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### Resistance and support

**Support:** $3,986 (short term) → $3,950-3,960 (last Friday’s low) → $3,812 (lower end of the channel)

**Resistance:** $4,050 (short-term pressure) → $4,100-4,112 (last week’s high range)

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### Strategy assessment

**Qualitative view: Geopolitical safe-haven dominates—strong in the short term, but heavy pressure above.**

- With gold back above $4,000, the key driver is the escalation of the US-Iran conflict plus the safe-haven demand brought by the Strait of Hormuz blockade. This is not a fundamental improvement, but rather **a return of risk premium**
- Fed hawkishness + a stronger dollar remain the ceiling overhead. A 53.5% probability of a September rate hike implies upside room for real interest rates, so the mid-term downside pressure logic for gold remains unchanged
- Key contradiction: **safe-haven buying vs rate-hike expectations**. If the US-Iran conflict escalates further (strikes on power plants/energy facilities), gold could challenge $4,100; if a ceasefire signal emerges, the safe-haven premium could be quickly given back

**Trading recommendations:**
- Short term: Mostly stand aside while above $4,000; don’t chase highs
- If pulled back to the $3,960-3,980 range, try a small long position; stop-loss at $3,940
- For medium- to long-term allocation: The phased-entry logic remains unchanged; increase exposure below $3,900

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Key events

**This Monday (7/21)**: Watch whether the US-Iran conflict has further weekend escalation actions
- **7/28-29**: FOMC monetary policy meeting—expected to keep policy unchanged, but the wording of the statement and Waller’s press conference will be key
- **Early August**: July jobs report + August CPI—decides the direction of the probability of a September rate hike
- **Continue to watch**: Restoration of passage through the Strait of Hormuz, and how the oil price trend transmits to inflation expectations