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Predict the probability that market traders who are bearish on the “Clarity Act” will see it implemented by 2026
At the beginning of the year, the market’s expected peak for the bill had reached 82%, and as negotiations got stuck in multiple deadlocks, the probability continued to drop significantly. The key contradictions blocking the bill’s progress are concentrated in three areas: first, the ethical provisions have long remained deadlocked, with both parties unable to reach consensus on a provision addressing conflicts of interest involving politicians and crypto assets of the president; second, lobbying groups from the banking sector oppose provisions related to stablecoin interest, and traditional financial institutions such as JPMorgan Chase continue to apply pressure and obstruct; third, the congressional agenda is tight and a midterm election is approaching, greatly compressing the window for the bill’s review and voting.
Although major industry players generally support this comprehensive digital asset regulatory bill, traders believe that the multiple disagreements cannot be resolved in the short term, and the bill is likely unable to complete the entire legislative process and officially take effect within 2026. Current market betting data reflects the industry’s pessimistic expectations for the pace at which U.S. crypto compliance legislation will be implemented, and regulatory uncertainty continues to suppress medium- to long-term sentiment in the crypto market.