Can you dare to bottom-fish on SKHY at $154?

First, look at the surface: a roller coaster + panic stampede, with retail investors shouting, “You can’t touch a US stock IPO.”

It was issued on July 10 at $149; it surged 13% on the first day to close at $168. On July 14, it climbed to a historical peak of $194.8. On July 16, it crashed 13.69% in a single day to $152. On July 17, it briefly dumped as low as $145.57. Over 9 trading days, the range exceeded 30%.

The $145–$154 range has been tested continuously. Buy orders keep propping it up repeatedly, and panic has reached its extreme—an upside rebound feels imminent.

First thing: a Korean brokerage says it’s “below expectations,” but you might be getting led into a ditch.

On July 13, Korea Investment & Securities (KIS) issued a report forecasting SK hynix’s Q2 operating profit of 60.4 trillion KRW, about 8% lower than the market consensus of 65 trillion KRW. After the news, the Korean stock price plunged more than 10%, and within three weeks it pulled back 33% from its all-time high.

HBM pricing benefits in the short term are limited because HBM contracts are typically long-term and locked. But that doesn’t mean the company is bad. Q2 revenue is expected at 80.9 trillion KRW, up 264% year over year; operating profit at 60.4 trillion KRW, up 556% year over year. Operating margin is 74.6%, setting a new historical high.

Second thing: all HBM capacity will be sold out in 2026—so why are you panicking?

SK hynix has a 62% global share in HBM, and in the HBM3E segment it accounts for more than half. By 2026, HBM capacity is already fully sold out; regular orders are booked out to Q1 2027. Nvidia long-term contracts are locked through the end of 2027. Inventory is kept at only 4 weeks, and output ships immediately.

The three HBM suppliers—SK hynix, Samsung, and Micron—will have all their 2026 capacity sold out. SK Group chairman hinted shortages may persist until 2030. The industry is facing the most severe supply shortage in nearly 15 years.

Third thing: on-chain capital is voting with its feet.

On July 14, on Hyperliquid, SK hynix-related contracts recorded $604k in 24-hour trading volume, surpassing BTC and becoming the platform’s highest-volume asset. Total crypto derivatives成交 was $8.8 billion, equal to 30% of the combined trading volume of Korean stocks and ADR. ADR has an approximately 40%-42% premium versus the underlying Korean shares. Starting July 29, two-way conversion opens; that premium will likely be compressed quickly by market forces. As the premium narrows, it may also bring additional sell-pressure.

Long vs short—judge for yourself

One side says:

All 2026 HBM capacity is sold out; orders booked to 2027
Q2 revenue is expected to jump 264% year over year, and profit 556%
Operating margin at 74.6% hits a record high
On-chain derivatives trading volume surpasses BTC; big whales are putting in real money
The $145–$154 range keeps getting tested; buy-side orders keep propping it up

The other side says:

ADR trades at a 40% premium to Korean stocks; after two-way conversion on July 29, it may compress
Korean brokerage downgrades sparked panic; sentiment is damaged
Only listed for 9 days; the chip structure is unstable
If the AI narrative cools, high-multiple targets will be hit first

Key levels

Resistance overhead: 168–170 (first-day close) → 176–180 → 194.8 (all-time peak)
Support below: 145–150 (issue price + psychological anchor) → 135–140 (0.618 retracement)

For short-term traders:

Go long with light position in the $154–$156 range; stop loss at 145. First target 168–170, second target 176–180.

For swing players:

Wait for the daily line to hold above 170, then add on the right side; target 200+. If it breaks below 145, stop out unconditionally. Around the opening of two-way conversion on July 29, watch for the risk of premium compression and manage position size in advance.

For long-term believers:

$145–$150 is near the issue price—DCA in batches as usual, eyes closed. The AI memory super-cycle isn’t over, and the HBM supply-demand gap is rigid.

Risk reminder: Opening two-way conversion on July 29 could trigger premium compression, and you may then get another dump. Is this a chance to get on board or a pit? It depends on your position sizing and mindset.

SKHY is like Nvidia in 2020—

99% of people think “it’s risen too much, it should drop,” and the result is that every pullback becomes a historical bottom.

On the day it breaks above 170, you’ll find:

Turns out it’s not that SKHY is bad—you keep cutting loss at the lowest panic points every time. #PreIPOs第二期OpenAI认购 #GateDEX全面接入RobinhoodChain #夏日创作营 $SKHY $MU $SNDK