#夏日创作营 Oil prices surged 16% over the past week. What is fundamentally different about this rebound compared with past geo “pulse” events?

The difference this time is that the rebound is not a fleeting pulse driven by a single incident; it is a composite supply crisis formed by the complete unraveling of a ceasefire framework, the continuous expansion of both sides’ strike targets, and the shipping lanes facing a double threat. Transit volume through the Strait of Hormuz has been steadily shrinking, while the potential Red Sea blockade risk also brings alternative routes into the risk envelope. This “main channel is blocked, and the backup channel is also unstable” pattern has shifted the market’s pricing of supply disruption from short-term panic to mid-term concern. Meanwhile, after oil fell from $119 to $70, it is technically in an oversold zone, and the momentum from short covering also adds extra fuel to the rebound. Net long positions increased by only 4,379 lots—so why does a seemingly mild buildup support such a sharp rally? Changes in net long positions are based on data as of July 14, and this Friday’s surge may not have been fully reflected yet.
More importantly, this dataset is missing part of the NYMEX financial crude oil futures contracts, so the actual net long size may be higher than the book value. In periods when prices are weak, overall speculative longs are also positioned low; sharp upward moves are often driven more by short covering than by a large-scale influx of new longs. Moderately changing positioning may instead suggest the market is not excessively crowded yet, and if the geopolitical situation continues to deteriorate, there may still be room for additional long accumulation. Saudi Arabia rerouted exports to Yanbu Port at 4 million barrels per day—has it fully offset the risk from Hormuz? The expansion and rerouting to Yanbu Port have indeed significantly improved the resilience of Saudi exports, but that does not mean the risk has been fully hedged. A scale of 4 million barrels per day is already close to more than 70% of Saudi’s normal export volume, meaning the strategic importance of Yanbu Port has risen to an unprecedented level. If the Red Sea shipping route faces a real threat due to actions by the Houthis, the fragility of this alternative path would be exposed instantly. The capacity of the East–West oil pipelines is not unlimited either; if both routes are constrained at the same time, Saudi exports will face severe challenges.
The current setup is trading risk from one strait for reliance on another. Brent is approaching the upper band of the Bollinger Bands at 88.54—how much upside room remains? The upper Bollinger Band is a dynamic technical pressure level, not an absolute resistance. Driven by news, there is a possibility of a brief pierce above the upper band. But what matters is whether there will be a substantial supply disruption afterward, rather than it remaining at the level of verbal threats. Can Brent break the upper band effectively and hold above it?
Why did the market react calmly to the Ukrainian attack on Russian refineries? This incident is not the first of its kind, and the market already has a degree of “aesthetic fatigue” from skirmishes involving energy facilities related to the Russia–Ukraine conflict. Compared with the Hormuz and Red Sea threats in the Middle East, the target of this attack was refineries rather than crude oil export facilities, so the direct impact on global crude oil supply is limited. However, if the frequency and intensity of such attacks continue to rise and begin to spill over to other export-related infrastructure, the marginal impact would be impossible to ignore. At present, market attention is highly focused on the evolution of the U.S.–Iran conflict, while other geopolitical variables are temporarily secondary.