Kimi K3 is aiming to disrupt Anthropic’s valuation expectations

Golden Finance reported that on July 19, in the prediction market Polymarket, the probability of Anthropic reaching a valuation of $1.5 trillion by the end of the year dropped significantly. Polymarket linked this change to the release of KimiK3 by Moon of the Dark and said Anthropic’s valuation expectations have been hit. On July 17, traders thought the probability of Anthropic reaching a $1.5 trillion valuation within the year was about 77%; by July 18, the figure fell to 67%, down roughly 10 to 11 percentage points in a single day. Market sentiment shifted after the release of KimiK3.

It is worth noting that what fell is the contract price in the prediction market, not Anthropic’s actual valuation shrinking by 11%. The contract bets on whether Anthropic’s valuation can reach or exceed $1.5 trillion on or before December 31, 2026; the change in probability only reflects traders’ expectations of this target.

Anthropic’s most recent public fundraising took place on May 28, when it completed a $65 billion Series H round, with a post-money valuation of $965 billion. To reach the $1.5 trillion target set by the Polymarket contract, its valuation would still need to increase by $535 billion, a rise of more than 55%.