// Reply to @某条评论: I’ve seen that post too—the one saying “ETF inflows = the bull run.” How should I put it……

Stablecoin supply is indeed rising, and ETFs have been steadily accumulating, but between these two things and price going up or down, the plain truth is that it’s a correlation, not causation. Look—when supply increased last month, didn’t the price also kind of meander for a while? Off-exchange capital is waiting, and on-chain leverage is also waiting. Everyone is waiting for a direction.

Funding rates have turned extremely over the past couple of days. Both long and short sides are betting on whether there will be a reversal or whether the bubble will keep getting squeezed. Personally, when funding rates reach extreme levels, I don’t rush to pick a side—I first check whether OI is declining in sync. If OI doesn’t shrink and funding rates are still elevated, then most likely sentiment hasn’t fully flushed out yet; it’s not a reversal signal.

Anyway, lately my own trades have all been on the smaller side—reducing position size and letting the data speak for itself. Don’t overthink it. For now, that’s it.