Honestly, I’ve been seeing everyone talk about stablecoin supply and ETF inflows lately, and it’s been going pretty hot—but I’m a bit confused. Even though USDT’s market cap is rising and Bitcoin is also pushing higher, when you look at the amount of capital on the inside, a lot of it is actually arbitrage and “brick-moving” trades—it’s not real “fresh money” from retail. As for the small amount of ETF capital outside the market, to be honest, I’m not sure it can keep getting pumped in continuously. In any case, don’t treat correlation as causation—before the Luna crash, stablecoin supply was also surging like crazy.

Recently I’ve been seeing a bunch of new L1/L2 projects rolling out incentives to pull up TVL, and old users are there complaining about “digging and selling rewards”—lol. Basically, the yields on those locked-in rewards look high, but once you factor in slippage and impermanent loss, you might end up doing worse than just holding USDT and earning interest the straightforward way. Anyway, I can’t be bothered to chase it—I’ll first see how this end-of-quarter liquidity plays out.