I just saw people in a group chat talking about sandwich attacks—how to defend against them and how to front-run. I personally think this kind of thing is pretty similar to arbitrage games in real life: you think it’s an opportunity, but it’s actually just a fee pool designed by someone else.

I also came across a vesting calendar last week—tons of tokens unlocking, and the comments were all full of anxiety about sell pressure. I looked at my own holdings and didn’t see any big moves to make. The lockup period hasn’t ended yet, so why panic? Strategy is often more important than tactics, especially when you’re the one being arbitraged against—better to just hold.

In the end, position management is more reliable than prediction. After I missed a so-called “opportunity” for the third time, I only trust that now.