A lot of people are saying that USDT is being issued more and that ETF inflows are coming in, so they’re convinced that over-the-counter funds are moving into the market—“the big bull run is coming.” I’m a bit worried.

Last month, on-chain data tools and labeling systems have been checked pretty strictly. A friend said the label for a certain whale address has been changed: it shows “inflow to CEX,” but what’s actually happening is internal transfers. In other words, those “smart money” labels that get picked up in bulk with a delay of two or three days—are you really going to treat them as a leading indicator? Anyway, I’d rather look up and verify the update frequency of the pricing feeds myself, and I don’t believe in that linear logic of “USDT issuance → BTC must rise.”

Correlation exists everywhere. For example, last year stablecoin supply fell, but BTC options implied volatility also declined, and some people said it means “funds are fleeing.” But volatility falling is more likely the market waiting for the regulatory shoe to drop, and has little to do with liquidity directly. I’m used to separating on-chain stablecoin flow from CEX deposit/withdrawal records; looking only at totals makes it easy to turn in the wrong assignment.

That’s it for now. If anyone really treats on-chain data as the “truth of liquidity,” don’t be too overconfident. What I need is to be reminded: don’t let those pre-stuck labels pull you into a trap—verify it yourself. Please douse me with cold water; honestly, I mean it.