Don’t rush to follow when you see large transfers—first, figure out whether it’s position-building or hedging.

Lately, miner/validator income has been getting criticized, and the topic of MEV/ordering fairness is heating up again. And one more thing: whale moves are sometimes also used as arbitrage tools—so not all big orders mean it’s about to go up.

The underlying logic is actually pretty simple: when whales open short positions, are they simply bearish, or are they trying to lock in profits?
If it’s the latter, the spot side often hasn’t moved, and in some cases they’re even adding to their spot holdings—then it’s not really about “running” (chasing a move).
I usually first look at the net inflow of on-chain lending pools, then combine it with contract/derivatives data. It’s more reliable than judging based on a transfer address alone—anyway, treat it as a reference.

After watching for a while recently, I feel that many big orders are market makers adjusting their structure, and getting in can easily put you in an MEV trap.
Forget it—let’s calm down for now.