Lots of people are watching stablecoin supply and ETF fund flows, then directly equating them—“inflows = price to rise,” or “as soon as the unlock calendar comes out = sell pressure will be deadly.” But how can correlation just be turned into causation so casually? On-chain data is sometimes only a lagging indicator, and the structure of off-chain capital is even more complex. In plain terms, unlock anxiety has been repeatedly amplified, but when those particular days actually arrive, once you test liquidity depth and routing slippage, volatility may not be as extreme as people imagine. Anyway, I think instead of calculating calendar anxiety, it’s better to watch the real behavior of DEX pools. Slippage error might even be more accurate than some analysis, ha.