I just took a look at the USDT supply—it’s jumped up another notch. Someone outright said, “Over-the-counter funds have moved in, and the market is about to take off.” How should I put it? That logic chain sounds plausible, but in reality it’s not that linear. Over the past two weeks, the supply hasn’t grown any less either, but the OI and funding rates simply can’t keep up. Instead, in the liquidation hotspots, it’s all the bones of people getting stuck chasing longs.

ETF money flows are the same way too: a single day can see net inflows of several hundred million, and the next day the broader market still drops without fail. This is more of an emotion amplifier than a steering wheel. I’d rather focus on the structure of OI and funding rates—looking to see whether there’s an extreme imbalance. Usually, that’s the real time when you get the signal.

Anyway, don’t treat correlation as causation. For now, that’s it.