Just looking at stablecoin supply data on Dune, I noticed the total amount of USDT and USDC has ticked up again. Combined with the off-exchange capital that came in during that ETF wave, a lot of people are just saying, “It’s solid, we’re going up.” But correlation and causation really aren’t the same thing. Money flowing in could be for allocation demand, could be institutions doing hedging and arbitrage, or it could simply be people parking funds and waiting for an opportunity. In any case, I’m used to treating these “signals” as noise unless I can actually understand the underlying flow.

Recently I saw news that a certain region is going to raise taxes. Some people around me have started rushing to switch into stablecoins, while others are more cautious—basically, the impact on people’s expectations for in-and-out fund timing matters far more than the actual tax rate. I’m not pretending I don’t envy those who positioned early and rode the whole wave to profit. Honestly, watching others make money—who wouldn’t feel anything? But when I think about it, my own rules are to split everything into three layers: the capital-preservation layer, the arbitrage layer, and the risk layer. Before entering, I make sure I’ve already thought through my exit line. Folding each step in advance means profit is just a byproduct.

Don’t treat correlation as causation, and don’t use other people’s luck as your benchmark for strategy. That’s it for now.