Mirror-like ball reflections—really a fitting description. Lately I’ve been watching chain games, and it feels like most of what people put in is their own emotions: when it goes up they think it’s about to take off, when it drops they think it’s just a wash. But the data in the pool won’t lie.

In terms of chain game economics, just looking at that output curve is… inflation and output—basically you want players to farm more, but when output exceeds demand, the price spirals down. The moment a studio steps in, it gets even worse—straight into sell pressure. I’ve been revisiting a few chain games that died, and I’ve found the core problems are pretty much the same: output is too fast, the pool depth isn’t deep enough, and then they’re quick to restock—once the coin price dips, nobody plays anymore.

Sigh, there’s actually too much noise. Whatever that model, whatever that mechanism—my noise-reduction strategy now is: stop reading those emotional posts in the communities, and focus on on-chain data instead—pool depth and the token outflow rate. That’s what matters. Anyway, don’t let your own emotions lead you astray. That’s it for now.