Just took a look at stablecoin supply data and ETF net inflows, and it feels like everyone is saying, “Money is coming in, so the price is likely to go up next.” Honestly, it’s a bit scary—I’ve thought the same way several times before, and every time I ended up chasing after the peak. In reality, the causal link between off-exchange capital flowing in and the market rallying isn’t that solid. Sometimes it’s just that liquidity loosens first, and then everyone starts looking for reasons to explain it. Recently, that RWA wave of hype has picked up again—U.S. Treasury yields are being compared with on-chain yield products. It looks pretty reasonable, but the on-chain scale is nowhere near the same order of magnitude as traditional markets. I watched closely for two days, and I almost wanted to jump in—luckily, the 30 seconds of hesitation saved me again. For now, that’s it. Don’t treat correlation as causation, otherwise next time the one getting liquidated will be yourself.