BTC settled on the daily above $62,500, and the bullish outlook remains.

This week’s market action has largely played out as expected: it moved from a straight bullish run to 65,500, flipped to short after the first test of resistance—signaling a pullback to fill the $62,800 gap. After the gap is filled again, it’s recommended to flip back to long. The market tempo is clear right now—rally, retest, then another rebound. This type of consolidation structure is actually the easiest to trade.

As for whether this is a top, I still lean toward one final push higher. The true liquidity-dense zone is above 67,000–68,000. Only a breakout from that area can effectively trigger stop-losses on bottom shorts and attract breakout-chasing funds, making the subsequent dip smoother. Therefore, as long as 62,500 isn’t effectively broken down, next week remains a view for another push higher.

From the daily structure, the mid-band has been tested 6 times repeatedly. The more times support is tested, the higher the probability of it breaking. So the best course of action now isn’t another pullback, but consolidation at high levels followed by a direct surge. If it revisits and makes new lower lows again, the whole rhythm would need to be reassessed.

On the macro side, I’m keeping the original view: this year’s rate-hike expectations still outweigh rate cuts. Inflation and geopolitical risks haven’t eased, so the conditions to directly start a full bull market aren’t sufficient. Therefore, this move is more likely to be seen as a big rebound within a bearish market, and the real opportunity is still the subsequent dip after the rebound ends.

For execution, follow the old playbook: stay bullish above 62,500. If there’s a pullback around 64,000, you can consider entering. Focus on two key levels—65,500 and 68,000. If a false breakout appears near 68,000, it’s likely the last swing mid-term short opportunity in the bear cycle. If it holds above 68,000 directly, then wait and observe for the market to show a new direction. #夏日创作营