After looking at on-chain data for another day, I found a pretty interesting phenomenon. Many people treat those “coincidence transfers” like mysticism—especially around a few major chain upgrades, when on-chain transfer traffic clearly increases. A lot of people then start guessing whether projects in the ecosystem are going to migrate.

Actually, when you break down these “coincidences,” many of them are just on-chain cost accounting. For example, in the past few days, when a certain blockchain was down for maintenance, I noticed several addresses that had counted the number of cross-chain bridge contract calls in advance to the last detail, transferring out and in with zero difference. To put it bluntly, it’s veteran players using the upgrade window for arbitrage or to exit positions—has nothing to do with mysticism.

People like me have too many old bull/bear narrative versions stored in our brains, like having several backups saved. Whenever I encounter this kind of “coincidence,” I pull up the on-chain “coincidence” comparisons from the time when the 2017 ETF attempt fell through, and I find that they were essentially grid trading bots needing to redeploy. For now, I’ll leave it at that—I don’t even know why I keep digging up these old accounts.