Daily recap: International situation suddenly heats up! US tech stocks collectively retreat, and the market has completely changed

No fluff today. I’ll connect global developments + the US stock market into one coherent logic, and explain why your account has suddenly been hard to trade these past two days, why tech stocks have continued falling, and why market style has flipped completely.

One-sentence summary of the situation right now: Risks outside have exploded, capital inside is moving to safety, and the US stock “mindless uptrend” era is over.

First, let’s cover the most core, just-concluded major international breaking news—this is the root cause of the market selloff.

1. Global risk suddenly heats up, and the whole market’s risk-off sentiment peaks

Latest Reuters confirmation: The situation in the Middle East has escalated again
A US military base was attacked, and the US side immediately launched retaliatory airstrikes, further intensifying the regional conflict.

The impact of this on financial markets is super straightforward:

1. Oil prices jump straight up again, reigniting inflation pressure;

2. Global capital panics, and dumps high-risk tech stocks without hesitation;

3. Expectations for “Fed rate cuts” cool down directly.

Previously, the market always hoped the Fed would open the taps—cut rates—to support tech stocks.
Now that the situation tightens and oil prices rise, rate cuts are basically off the table; even maintaining high rates for longer becomes likely.

This is also the key reason Fed officials have been collectively hawkish recently:
Inflation has upside rebound pressure, and with external conditions unstable, they simply can’t loosen policy.

2. US stock market today: Indexes fall across the board, and the tech sector is clearly the weakest

Overnight, all three major US stock indexes closed lower, with the Nasdaq suffering the biggest drop and the most visible pressure:
The entire market is playing out like broad cooling in risk assets.

What’s most painful isn’t just the overall index down—it’s a structural breakdown:

1. Chips, AI hardware, and storage have fully entered a technical retreat
The semiconductor sector, which was hottest earlier, has been dropping for weeks continuously.
All the good news has been priced in, AI capex expectations have cooled, and on top of that high interest rates compress valuations;
now, these chip stocks aren’t just “pullbacks and shakeouts”—capital is continuing to exit, and valuations are reverting.

A lot of people are still waiting for a rebound to get back to break-even.
The reality is: high-end AI “oddball” names and mid-to-small cap chips have already entered a grinding down-and-bottoming mode.

2. The market style has switched completely
Now capital’s thinking is extremely simple and brutal:
Flee tech, flee high valuations, embrace safety, embrace defensives.

Only these can hold up, or even stay green against the trend:
energy, defense/military, traditional value, and low-position defensive sector stocks.

High-end AI, compute power, and semiconductors have all been abandoned by capital.

3. Let me spell out the full causal chain behind this round of selloff (most plain-language on the internet)

Middle East conflict escalates → oil prices rebound → inflation expectations rise → the Fed dares not cut rates → high rates keep compressing tech valuations → capital exits AI chips → US tech keeps pulling back

This is the most real closed-loop logic right now.

Before, when AI rose, it was driven by: liquidity-cut expectations + speculation expectations + order expectations.
Now AI falls because: expectations are all landing + rates are unfriendly + external risks are pressuring it.

Don’t doubt it—this round of AI near-term action has already ended at the stage level.

Now, in the US stock market, there is no “full-blown bull market”—only extreme divergence:

• Pure themes, no earnings, high-valuation tech: continued heavy selling

• Top-tier hard-core leaders: barely withstand the pressure, mostly range-bound

• Risk-off and defensive sectors: becoming capital’s new safe haven

4. The most common pitfalls ordinary people are likely to step into (key reminder)

Many retail traders are operating completely against the trend right now:
Seeing it drop for two days and then getting impatient to bottom-fish chips and buy AI small caps.

I’ll be blunt:
This is a risk diffusion period, not a bottom-fishing window.
Geopolitical risk hasn’t been resolved, rate-cut expectations haven’t returned, and tech capital hasn’t flowed back;
any rebound amid the declines is bait to lure buyers.

5. The steadiest operating approach right now (plain-speak summary)

1. High-end AI, semiconductors, storage: ban them directly for now—don’t bottom-fish, don’t add positions

2. Cut overall exposure; with market sentiment weak, controlling your hands is what makes money

3. Give up theme speculation—focus only on earnings certainty and low-position defensive sector stocks

4. The broader market doesn’t face a systemic crash, but the structural “losing money” regime will last a long time

One last heartfelt truth

The market has already switched from “chasing growth, chasing AI”
to “mitigating risk, protecting returns.”

With external conditions unstable, monetary policy tightened, and high-valuation themes fading,
the era of mindlessly earning money while lying back is over. What comes next is a difficult period of carefully selecting stocks and staying light, watching from the sidelines. #沃什称AI是否引发通胀取决于美联储 $BTC ‌