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🚨🇺🇸 Oracle's 5-year CDS just hit a record 198 basis points, worse than 2008 levels.
S&P downgraded Oracle to BBB- last week, one notch above junk, and said plainly it had underestimated how much cash Oracle's AI buildout would actually eat.
Real risk here isn't just spending. Half of Oracle's unfulfilled orders trace back to one customer, OpenAI. That's customer concentration on top of negative free cash flow.
This comes the same week Kimi K3 rattled the entire AI trade. One analyst called Oracle's credit stress the "canary in the coal mine" for the broader rally. Credit markets are pricing risk equity markets haven't caught up to yet.