Someone asked me what interest rates have to do with crypto. It’s really hard to explain in one or two sentences. Anyway, lately I’ve been watching on-chain and it feels like macro transmission is actually quite slow, but every time risk appetite tightens, positions also shake along with it. It’s not an immediate crash—more like the feeling of people lining up to sprint changes. For example, a certain L2 has been comparing TPS and fees with others these past two days, and the controversy is pretty big, but if you look at the arbitrage behavior in the queues, it really doesn’t have much to do with macro interest rates. When market sentiment shifts, everyone is more willing to focus on these performance metrics, while ignoring the actual changes in risk appetite behind the positioning. Plainly put, macro is the weather, and positions are street photography—you can only wait for the light to come before pressing the shutter. For my part, I’m focusing more on defensive strategies now, like checking whether there are signs of “being sandwiched” in a searcher’s bundle; that’s far more actionable than trying to guess the direction of interest rates.