Weekend crypto markets are boring—let’s look at the US stock market.

After checking last week’s Goldman Sachs Prime Brokerage ledger’s real client positions report, US tech/AI is already close to having a full washout, with funds waiting on the sidelines; Wednesday’s earnings are key.
A few takeaways:
1 Tech/AI = nearing an extreme washout being done
IT’s Prime ledger gross/net exposures were still at 5-year highs 6 weeks ago: 23.4% and 26.3%
Now they’ve fallen to 19.4%/14.7%. This is a one-year 20th percentile and a five-year 40th percentile state… positions are about flattened…
Over the past 8 weeks, hedge funds sold 6 weeks’ worth of tech; the cumulative decline is the largest in the last 10 years, matching the summer of 2024.
Friday in the US market was basically the one last leg of panic selling—most of what needed to run has already run. If it keeps dropping, it needs fresh fundamental deterioration. (Wednesday big-tech earnings)
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2 Overall deleveraging
Gross leverage at 204.9%—about the 60th percentile over the past year.
Net leverage at 51.2%—the 10th percentile over the past year.
Both are very low.
This suggests comprehensive de-risking over the past few weeks; there isn’t much forced selling pressure left, while large amounts of capital are still on the sidelines watching and not entering yet (waiting for an entry catalyst, like Wednesday big-tech earnings).
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3 Rotation: out of tech/defense, into financials, healthcare, energy, and industrials
Most net sold: IT, telecom, consumer, utilities
Most net bought: financials, healthcare, energy, industrials
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4 What hasn’t been washed clean is the momentum positioning
PB ledger momentum exposure: down to the 65th percentile over one year, but still at the 93rd percentile over five years.
So some of the one-year bubble has been removed. But looking over longer periods, the positioning is still at high levels. So this can be seen as the later stage of a selloff, but it’s not the end of the selloff.
If July’s big-tech earnings capex comes in below expectations, there’s another wave that can be hit.
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5 Capital is hedging the downside, but it hasn’t priced in a major breakdown crash yet
The market is betting on stock-by-stock differentiation, not an overall systemic collapse.
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Overall conclusion
With low exposure, low leverage, and defensive rotations fully in place… if, for example, next Wednesday’s Google / hyperscaler capex has a catalyst… then the recently exited capital would be fuel for a rebound.
But if capex collapses on Wednesday, then there’s still more momentum positioning available to keep washing and keep breaking down…