I was digging through old news and ended up at that time in the previous bull market when stablecoins depegged—suddenly it felt a bit like watching a rerun of an old movie when looking at the transparency of stablecoin reserves. The paperwork is clearly and unequivocally written as “audited,” yet everyone’s still anxious in their hearts; the moment there’s even a hint of trouble, people rush to redeem. Plainly put, trust is pretty fragile. You don’t just have to prove you’re innocent—you also have to convince people that you’re innocent. And that’s actually harder than innocence itself.

Recently, some place has been raising taxes—compliance keeps swinging back and forth between tightening and easing—and many people have started wondering whether the routes for deposits and withdrawals have gotten even narrower. In any case, that’s how I see it: those transparent on-chain ledgers look real and tangible, but when genuine psychological panic hits, who cares how much reserves you have? Run first, worry later. That’s survivorship bias—we remember the ones that didn’t run into trouble, while those that did fail early are already forgotten in a corner.

I’m going to keep looking at news from beyond the firewall—the narrative cycle sounds pretty familiar.