7.19 General Lu’s next-week trend forecast

Based on a comprehensive assessment of the global macro environment, fund flows, and on-chart technical formations, the overall trend for next week’s BTC remains relatively weak. Any rebounds should be treated as an opportunity for positioning from high levels; multiple external negative factors will continue to weigh on the market.

I. On the level of the external macro environment

1. Interest rates continue to tighten, suppressing risk assets
Recent U.S. inflation and employment data have remained strong. Market expectations for Fed rate cuts have been continually delayed. Yields on the 10-year U.S. Treasury have continued to rise, and the dollar has stayed strong. Crypto assets are high-volatility risk instruments. In a high-rate environment, the opportunity cost of holding digital assets rises significantly. Institutional funds have continued to withdraw from spot ETFs, liquidity keeps shrinking, and it is difficult to support prices to keep rising.

2. Geopolitical pricing logic reverses, and the safe-haven narrative fails
The short-term price premium from regional conflicts has already been fully digested. The supply-interruption risks that the market had been pricing in are gradually fading. Funds are flowing back into traditional safer assets such as the U.S. dollar and U.S. Treasuries. At present, geopolitical volatility no longer provides buy-side support for BTC. Instead, the inflation expectations boosted by conflict further reinforce expectations of monetary tightening, forming an adverse risk transmission pathway. BTC’s “digital safe-haven” narrative has temporarily failed.

3. Weakness in U.S. stocks drags on sentiment, risk appetite cools across the board
After the AI technology sector in U.S. stocks surged continuously, valuation bubbles appeared. Funds gradually took profits and exited. The Nasdaq faced pressure and traded with volatility. BTC and U.S. growth stocks have maintained a high long-term correlation. With expectations that U.S. stocks will continue to adjust next week, global risk appetite will weaken in sync. Funds will proactively reduce their crypto market holdings, creating cross-market synchronized sell pressure.

II. Fund flows and in-market price action logic

After this round of BTC temporarily rallied above 64,800, the upside momentum from longs was completely exhausted. On the 1-hour timeframe, KDJ reached the overbought zone and then turned downward. MACD long-side incremental momentum keeps deteriorating. The 64,800–64,900 range forms a strong resistance band, and every round of modest rebound has been accompanied by profit-taking and capital leaving.

Spot ETFs have long remained in a net outflow state. Large whales and miners have continued to reduce holdings and sell from high levels. In-market follow-through support keeps weakening. Any rally at this stage is only a technical rebound during a decline and does not have the foundation for a reversal into strength.

III. Overall trend outlook for next week

With multiple macro negative factors converging and long-side momentum in the market lacking strength, next week’s BTC is expected to trade primarily in a range with a downward bias. In the short term, any modest rebounds are excellent opportunities to enter short from high levels. Resistance in the overhead zones is firm, upside room is very limited, and downside correction space has already been fully opened. Overall, the preferred trading approach is to follow the trend and stay bearish.

BTC target range: 61,000–60,500

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