I just saw a post talking about the relationship between stablecoin supply and ETFs, saying that over-the-counter funds are coming in, so stablecoins are being issued/printed more. I clicked in and had a look—the data really looks good, but I can’t help feeling something’s off. What I mean is, the correlation looks pretty strong, but maybe everyone is simply betting on the same direction at the same time?

I’m also seeing the same kind of thing with RWA and on-chain yield products being dragged into the comparison lately: when there’s even a little movement on US Treasury yields, this side’s narrative tends to drift along with it.

I don’t know. In any case, I’m increasingly afraid to treat this kind of linear inference as a conclusion. The harder the structure, the softer the story—don’t let a pretty narrative make hard data just background filler. Better to look more at whether those NFT projects actually have real money running—cash flow is more reliable than capital flow.